Wall Street analysts unanimously believe that the Federal Reserve may hint at a readiness to pause rate cuts in this week's meeting, which would cloud the rate outlook.

The Federal Reserve will hold its final FOMC meeting of the year on Tuesday, and although the market is almost certain it will cut rates by 25 basis points, the outlook for January and beyond is unclear.

According to analysis by Yardeni Research, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will use the post-meeting news conference to convey to investors that the next rate decision will signal a pause in rate cuts.

Yardeni Research stated in a report last Sunday: “Since the 100 basis points cut on September 18, we expect Powell to signal at the post-FOMC meeting press conference that the Federal Reserve will temporarily pause further easing.”

A resilient and continuously strengthening economy is a key reason why the Federal Reserve may make December's rate cut the last one for a while.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast shows that the annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter will reach 3.3%.

Coupled with the inflation trend that began to reverse in recent months, Yardeni Research believes that further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could have negative consequences.

“(The Federal Reserve) The reason for not cutting interest rates again early next year is not only because economic growth and inflation remain strong, but also because further rate cuts could exacerbate both,” they said.

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius recently held a similar view. In a report last Sunday evening, he stated, “We expect the main message of the December meeting to be that the FOMC anticipates slowing the pace of rate cuts in the future.”

Hatzius has removed expectations for a rate cut in January by the Federal Reserve, now predicting only two rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points.

The futures market also agrees with this idea. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January next year is only 15%.

However, Apollo Global Management's Chief Economist Torsten Sløk believes that the Federal Reserve may go further next year by shocking the market with a rate hike, and all of this is related to inflation.

“Recent inflation data shows signs that the decline in inflation has stalled and there is a risk of acceleration,” Sløk said last Sunday, adding that inflation could resemble the scenario of the 1970s.

He said: “The recent rising trend in inflation, combined with strong economic momentum, suggests that inflation will rebound in 2025, which does not justify a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The possibility that the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates in 2025 is increasing.”

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market believes the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising rates next year is only 0.1%.

Article reposted from: Jinshi Data