[Audio version] Jinshi Futures Breakfast on December 17, 2024 (Tuesday)

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Macro News

1. According to the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Finance has decided to carry out treasury bond market-making support operations. The operation direction is to sell as you go, 2024 book-entry interest-bearing treasury bonds (16th issue) 1.26 billion yuan, 2024 book-entry interest-bearing treasury bonds (19th issue) 530 million yuan. The competitive bidding time is December 17.

2. According to the Ministry of Commerce, China has consistently opposed unilateral tariff increases and has lodged solemn representations with the US on many occasions. The WTO has long ruled that the US 301 tariffs on China violate WTO rules. The US's move to raise 301 tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake.

3. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing announced today that its subsidiary Hong Kong OTC Clearing Corporation will accept foreign investors to use onshore government bonds and policy financial bonds in Bond Connect positions as collateral for Northbound Swap Connect starting from January 13, 2025. The newly added eligible collateral can be used to pay the initial margin for northbound swap transactions, providing international investors with greater flexibility and improving the efficiency of their capital use.

4. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of December 16, 2024, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 3456.71 points, up 14.0% from the previous period.

5. The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held a meeting to convey and study the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. The meeting emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. A variety of monetary policy tools should be used in a comprehensive manner to reduce the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in a timely manner, maintain ample liquidity, and match the growth of social financing scale and money supply with the expected targets of economic growth and overall price level.

6. According to the Ministry of Finance, on December 12, Liao Min, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance of China, and Shang Bo, Deputy Secretary of the US Treasury, co-chaired the seventh meeting of the China-US Economic Working Group. The two sides had candid, in-depth and constructive communication on the macroeconomic situation and policies of the two countries, and on global challenges such as cooperating to help low-income countries cope with liquidity problems and governance reform of multilateral development banks. China clarified its position on relevant economic and trade issues. China also expressed concern about the recent US economic and trade restrictions on China.

7. The Party Leadership Group of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange conveyed and studied the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. The meeting pointed out that in 2025, it is necessary to promote in-depth reform and high-level opening up in the foreign exchange field. Steadily expand the institutional opening up of the financial market and support the entry of medium- and long-term capital into the market.

Global futures market changes

1. International precious metal futures closed with mixed gains and losses. COMEX gold futures fell 0.21% to $2,670.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.04% to $31.04 per ounce.

2. International oil prices fell across the board, with the January 2025 contract of U.S. crude oil falling 0.9% to $70.65 per barrel, and the February 2025 contract of Brent crude oil falling 0.79% to $73.90 per barrel.

3. London base metals closed with mixed gains and losses, with LME copper futures up 0.14% at $9,065/ton, LME zinc futures down 1.6% at $3,046/ton, LME nickel futures down 1.21% at $15,670/ton, LME aluminum futures down 1.55% at $2,564.5/ton, LME tin futures up 0.77% at $29,320/ton and LME lead futures down 0.75% at $1,995/ton.

4. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed with mixed gains and losses, with soybean futures down 0.56% to 982.75 cents per bushel; corn futures up 0.68% to 445 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 0.54% to 549.25 cents per bushel.

5. Domestic commodity futures closed mostly higher at night trading, with energy and chemical products generally rising, with No. 20 rubber up 1.46%, PVC up 1.28%, and PTA up 1.25%. Most of the black series rose. Agricultural products rose and fell, with palm oil down 1.2%. Base metals rose and fell, with Shanghai tin up 0.48%, Shanghai copper up 0.23%, Shanghai lead up 0.2%, Shanghai nickel down 0.64%, Shanghai aluminum down 0.79%, and Shanghai zinc down 0.83%. Shanghai gold rose 0.06%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.41%.

Black hot news

1. According to Mysteel, the total iron ore shipments from Australia to Brazil from December 9 to December 15, 2024 were 25.779 million tons, an increase of 4.310 million tons from the previous month.

2. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2024, China's crude steel output was 78.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%; pig iron output was 67.48 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%; steel output was 118.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. In November, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 430 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; the average daily output was 14.266 million tons. Imported coal was 54.98 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%.

3. National Bureau of Statistics: From January to November, the housing construction area of ​​real estate developers was 7260.14 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. Among them, the residential construction area was 5083.89 million square meters, a decrease of 13.1%. The newly started housing area was 673.08 million square meters, a decrease of 23.0%.

4. A relevant person in charge of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission stated that after the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee made arrangements to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, various departments have vigorously implemented existing policies and introduced incremental policies, local governments have taken active actions, social confidence has been effectively boosted, and the real estate market has shown a positive momentum of stopping falling and stabilizing.

5. According to Mysteel, the total amount of iron ore arriving at 47 ports in China was 24.092 million tons, a decrease of 2.236 million tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at 45 ports in China was 22.684 million tons, a decrease of 2.488 million tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at the six northern ports was 12.407 million tons, a decrease of 802,000 tons from the previous month.

6. Li Qiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council. The meeting made arrangements for optimizing and improving the management mechanism of local government special bonds, pointing out that it is necessary to implement a "negative list" management of local government special bonds investment areas, allowing them to be used for land reserves and supporting the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing.

7. According to data from the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce, in the second week of December 2024, a total of 10 working days, Brazil's iron ore was 12.8511 million tons, compared with 39.3317 million tons in December last year. The average daily shipment volume was 1.2851 million tons/day, a decrease of 34.65% from 1.9666 million tons/day in December last year.

Hot news on agricultural products

​1. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the domestic soybean crushing volume rebounded last week. Monitoring shows that as of the week of December 13, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 1.87 million tons, a weekly increase of 210,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 80,000 tons, and a year-on-year flat, up 10,000 tons from the average of the same period in the past three years.

2. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of December 11, the national live pig price was 16.44 yuan/kg, down 1.67% from December 4; the corn price in major wholesale markets was 2.14 yuan/kg, down 0.93% from December 4; the pig-to-grain price ratio was 7.68, down 0.78% from December 4.

3. According to Mysteel's survey, as of December 12, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports increased by 0.3% week-on-week, with total inventory of 504,000 tons.

4. Data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Pressers Association (SPPOMA) showed that from December 1 to 15, 2024, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 17.07%, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.48%, and output decreased by 19.6%.

5. According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 to 15 were 660,642 tons, a decrease of 6.7% from the 707,932 tons exported in the same period last month.

6. According to Mysteel, as of December 13, 2024, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in key areas across the country was 1.929 million tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from last week, an increase of 0.38%; a decrease of 401,900 tons from the same period last year, a decrease of 17.24%.

7. Data released by shipping research agency SGS showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 to 15 are expected to be 545,921 tons, a decrease of 8.25% from 595,007 tons exported in the same period last month.

8. The European Commission said on Monday that the EU's soybean production in 2024 was slightly less than 2.8 million tons, 10,000 tons less than the previous year despite a 10% increase in the planting area, due to unfavorable growing conditions throughout the year. The average yield was 25.7 tons per hectare, which was not only lower than the 28.3 tons per hectare in the previous year, but also lower than the long-term average of 28.1 tons per hectare.

9. Agricultural consulting firm AgRural said that Brazil's 2024/25 soybean planting is "nearly complete" and Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 171.5 million tons. The revised forecast will be released at the end of January.

10. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed that as of the week of December 12, 2024, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,676,444 tons, in line with market expectations of 1.3-2.2 million tons. The previous week was revised to 1,736,783 tons, and the initial value was 1,622,197 tons. U.S. soybean shipments to China (mainland) increased to 1,025,610 tons, compared with 847,025 tons in the previous week.

11. According to CONAB, the national commodity supply company under the Ministry of Agriculture of Brazil, as of December 15, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 96.8%, 94.1% last week, and 94.6% in the same period last year. Brazil's corn planting rate was 75.0%, 72.2% last week, and 73.5% in the same period last year.

12. According to data from the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce, in the second week of December 2024, a total of 10 working days, a total of 953,900 tons of soybeans were shipped, compared with 3,828,700 tons in December last year. The average daily shipping volume was 95,400 tons/day, a decrease of 50.17% from 191,400 tons/day in December last year; a total of 1,162,900 tons of white sugar were shipped, compared with 3,792,500 tons in December last year. The average daily shipping volume was 116,300 tons/day, a decrease of 38.67% from 189,600 tons/day in December last year.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. According to Sino-Trade, the 50,000 tons/year high-smoothness butyl rubber unit of Shandong Weite Chemical Co., Ltd. will be temporarily shut down from December 15, 2024, and the restart time is to be determined.

2. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November, the industrial crude oil output of enterprises above designated size was 17.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%; the daily average output was 575,000 tons. The imported crude oil was 48.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%; the industrial natural gas output of enterprises above designated size was 20.7 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; the daily average output was 690 million cubic meters.

3. According to Longzhong Information, as of December 16, the total inventory of styrene ports in Jiangsu was 30,900 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous cycle, an increase of 14.87%. The commodity inventory was 21,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous cycle, an increase of 23.53%.

Metal Hot News

1. According to foreign media reports, sources involved in pricing negotiations said on Monday that some Japanese buyers have agreed to pay a global aluminum producer an aluminum premium of US$228 per ton, which is 30.3% higher than the premium in the fourth quarter of this year. This will also be the fourth consecutive quarter of increase, exceeding the US$175 per ton level in the October-December quarter.

2. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of ten nonferrous metals in November was 6.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%; the cumulative output from January to November was 72.29 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.4%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in November was 3.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; the output of electrolytic aluminum from January to November was 40.22 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.6%.

3. A letter showed that 10 EU countries proposed further trade sanctions on Russia, including its production of metals such as aluminum, to further cut the country's revenue and funds invested in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

4. Sources said that the Syrian Central Bank's vault holds nearly 26 tons of gold reserves and about $200 million in U.S. dollar reserves. Based on current market prices, Syria's gold reserves are worth $2.2 billion.

Talking about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. Real estate completion continues to decline, and the outlook for glass demand is not good?

Hualian Futures analysis pointed out that there was no ignition or cold repair of production lines last week. The resumption of hot repair production lines in the previous period brought a slight rebound in weekly output. The overall inventory of enterprises decreased slightly month-on-month, but there was still regional differentiation. Recently, the supply and demand of the glass market has maintained a weak balance, and the inventory has fluctuated slightly. However, the supply has stabilized under the continuous recovery of production profits, and the demand in the off-season has weakened. Manufacturers are still facing the pressure of accumulating inventory. From the perspective of the market, the long-term contract has been boosted by the shift in domestic policies. The recent improvement in real estate sales has led to the market's expectation of the release of incremental demand next year. However, the demand has weakened at the end of the year and the policy vacuum has caused the market to rebound under pressure. In terms of operation, the rebound is short-term trading.

2. The oil and fat trends are differentiated, how will the subsequent market develop?

Guosen Futures analysis pointed out that on Monday, oil futures showed divergent trends, with rapeseed oil rising sharply and soybean oil falling slightly. The crude palm oil benchmark contract rose first and then fell, and the futures price fluctuated repeatedly at a low level. Domestically, the oil market fluctuated widely. Rapeseed oil rose sharply due to the uncertainty of trade policies. Relatively speaking, soybean oil fell under pressure due to short-term long positions. Spot soybean oil inventories gradually fell, and the basis was firm. The three major oils fluctuated repeatedly within their respective fluctuation ranges. Short-term operations are appropriate.

Overview of recent important futures data and events

1. At 21:30 on December 17, the monthly rate of U.S. retail sales in November. The monthly rate of U.S. retail sales in October was 0.4%. Traders cut their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in 2025, reducing the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in December to about 50%.

2. December 18th is to be determined. WBMS will release the October global metal supply and demand report. Previously, in September, the global WBMS nickel market had a supply surplus of 2,800 tons, the primary aluminum supply had a supply surplus of 13,500 tons, and the copper supply was in short supply of 160,500 tons. We will pay attention to the changes in supply and demand this time.

3. December 18th is to be determined, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil will begin.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data