Bitcoin started the week with a rise, directly breaking through 106,000, setting a new historical record. Bitcoin's weekly chart has seen three consecutive bottom rebounds, continuously reaching new highs. During the Asian trading session, Bitcoin broke new highs, and the CB premium was wiped out by the BN, with market leaders beginning to rotate. USDT, representing Chinese strength, recently increased by 20 billion in the past month, a surge more significant than the US ETF. It seems that the next stage of Bitcoin's rise is being safeguarded by Asia! The current acceleration of Bitcoin's rise aligns with the timeline of 2020, when it surged to six times the price by April the following year. If this pattern replicates, Bitcoin's price should be around 300,000 by next April!
Next, the main force behind the rally is in Asia, and the upcoming trend can completely refer to the Q4 2020 trend. The acceleration of Bitcoin's weekly rally at that time started in September, with prices rising from 10,000 to 60,000 by April 2021. There were very few pullbacks in between, and the price rose sixfold. The current acceleration of Bitcoin's weekly rally also started in September, and the pacing of the two bull markets can basically be considered consistent. Therefore, it is very likely that we will replicate the trend of 2020/2021, continuing to rally until next April, with a formal correction expected then. If the rise can also replicate that bull market, Bitcoin's price will be around 300,000 by next April.
To mention macro factors again, this week is the last super central bank week of the year, focusing on the interest rate decisions from the US and Japan.
In the US, the CPI inflation data was announced at 3 AM on Thursday, and after it met expectations, this rate cut of 25 basis points is now almost a certainty. CME's probability has reached 97%. This level of certainty means that the current US stock and crypto markets have fully priced in this rate cut, so it won't be regarded as a favorable factor at that time.
The main focus on Thursday will be Powell's speech and the outlook for the January FOMC. Currently, CME gives an 80% probability that rates will remain unchanged in January, which is key to market speculation for this month.
Another one is the Bank of Japan's decision.
The last time Japan raised interest rates, it directly led to the first disastrous 85 incident in the crypto space this year. Since then, Japan's interest rate decisions have significantly impacted global financial markets. However, this rate hike is still a low-probability event. Last week, Ueda's comments were dovish, reiterating that monetary policy needs to be data-driven. Whether to raise rates will depend on Japan's economy and price situation. The market generally interprets this as a reluctance to raise rates. The Bank of Japan's decision will be announced on Thursday afternoon; we will see then.
Recently, many friends have been asking why, despite Bitcoin reaching a new high, altcoins are not moving and are even falling?
This is because in the entire crypto market, most of the funds are held by that 20% main players. Bitcoin and mainstream value coins in this sector are their important chips. When Bitcoin rallies, funds flow back in, while altcoin funds flow out and are absorbed by Bitcoin mainstream coins, causing a decline. So, only after Bitcoin's mainstream rally is complete will altcoins start to rise, in a cyclical manner.
Currently, Bitcoin's sideways high position, even showing bloodsucking behavior, has put significant pressure on altcoins, and the frequent emergence of MEMEs has intensified this pressure.
SHIB, pepe, bome, NOT, neiro, act, goat, ban, people, wif...................
I believe this is a meme bull market, but I don't believe that value won't return, nor that chaos won't end. People will eventually tire of this disorderly growth and will return to what they consider 'so-called value.' This is similar to how people eventually grew tired of the chaos of VC tokens.
In summary: Hold onto value and wait for the blooms.