What would happen if Bitcoin's underlying algorithm SHA-256 were cracked? The foundation of the global cryptocurrency market would collapse, and the legend of Bitcoin would come to an end. According to well-known venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, this could happen in the next 2 to 5 years, with Google’s new generation of Willow chips being the 'culprit'!
Recently, Chamath made a surprising statement on a podcast, claiming that only about 8,000 Willow chips would be needed to crack the SHA-256 underlying algorithm used by Bitcoin. This means that the 1 million bitcoins long held by Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, could be at risk of being unfrozen at any moment. As the price of Bitcoin skyrockets, Nakamoto's personal wealth is estimated to have reached an astonishing $106 billion, making him the 16th richest person in the world. However, will all this wealth vanish with the cracking of SHA-256?
But is it really that simple? Clearly not. After Google announced its withdrawal from the Willow chip project, the crypto community engaged in intense discussions about 'quantum computing cracking cryptocurrencies.' Several experts in the field of cryptocurrency have expressed skepticism, believing that the SHA-256 algorithm is not threatened by quantum computing, and even if quantum computers could indeed crack the encryption algorithm, it would take a long time.
Adam Back, the founder of Blockstream, directly refuted Chamath's view, stating that we will not be able to achieve a computer with 1 million qubits in the next ten years or even longer. And Charles Guillemet, the CTO of Ledger, pointed out that there is no encryption in Bitcoin, and quantum computers will not break the SHA-256 algorithm.
So, why did Chamath make such a shocking statement? He explained that his remarks were misinterpreted. He was actually saying that quantum computing would pose a threat to v1 encryption methods, not that it would happen in the short term. However, he also warned that any potential risks to Bitcoin could be addressed through forks, but it would not retroactively protect those exposed and unmigrated public keys.
This inevitably brings to mind Satoshi Nakamoto's article from 2010, in which he stated that the SHA-256 algorithm is very strong and can last for decades unless a significant breakthrough attack occurs. If cracked, the blockchain can reach a consensus, lock the state prior to the crack, and transition to a new hashing algorithm.
So, will Google's Willow chips really become the terminator of Bitcoin? Is Satoshi Nakamoto's million holdings truly in imminent danger? All of this needs to be verified over time. However, we should remain vigilant and closely monitor the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. After all, in this world full of uncertainties and variables, even the slightest disturbance could trigger huge waves.