Despite the stagnation in progress to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve will still lower rates this week, but the pace of cuts next year may be slower.

The market expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points this week, about a month before Trump returns to the White House to begin his second presidential term.

This move will be the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut this year, as it struggles with how quickly to loosen its grip on the world's largest economy. If officials cut rates too quickly, inflation may remain above 2%. If they cut rates too slowly, the labor market may weaken significantly.

After being more optimistic about the inflation outlook earlier this year, decision-makers seem more concerned about the health of the labor market, which they will balance more or less with these risks.

Yale University professor and former head of the Federal Reserve's monetary affairs division Bill English said, "Based on our observations over the past few months, the economy seems slightly strong, and inflation appears somewhat high, which means the pace of interest rate cuts will be slower."

Despite this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is still prepared to cut rates by 25 basis points for a variety of reasons. Officials still believe that the current level of rates is suppressing demand, which in turn suppresses inflation. They have indicated that monetary policy should continue to return to a more "neutral" level, which is less restrictive for growth.

Additionally, although some price pressures are more stubborn than expected, the latest data has not indicated that the Federal Reserve has lost control over inflation. In fact, the latest CPI data shows that the costs associated with housing (which have kept inflation high) have begun a long-awaited decline, which is an encouraging sign.

Officials also seem reassured by the recent "mild boom" in U.S. productivity, with some believing this increases the likelihood that stronger wages and a robust economy are not inconsistent with a continued decline in inflation.

But after the potential rate cut on Thursday, the Fed's subsequent pace of rate cuts is even more unclear.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has indicated that a strong economy means the Fed does not need to "rush" to cut rates, but little else has been specified regarding the pace of rate cuts. He also emphasized that the Fed is uncertain about where "neutral" actually is, stating, "You can only know through practice."

Former Kansas City Fed President George, who retired in 2023, stated, "I think it will become increasingly difficult for the Fed to explain why it continues to cut rates and the performance of the economy." George indicated that if she were still at the Fed, she would "very much prefer to not cut rates anymore" and to pause for "a longer time."

Compared to the last update of the "dot plot" in September, the market expects officials to reduce their predictions for rate cuts next year.

Three months ago, most estimated that the Federal Reserve would cut rates again by 25 basis points in December, with the policy rate dropping a full percentage point to 3.25%-3.5%, and expected that as inflation ultimately reaches their target, the federal funds rate will further decline to below 3% by the end of 2026.

Former senior Federal Reserve official John Roberts believes that the Fed may only plan to cut rates by 75 basis points next year, but he noted that due to significant uncertainty regarding the extent of comprehensive tariffs, mass deportations, and substantial cuts in taxes and regulations discussed by the presidential candidates, officials' estimates for rate cuts may vary widely.

(Financial Times) A survey of economists conducted in collaboration with the University of Chicago Booth School of Business has also raised their forecasts for policy rates; compared to the survey conducted before September, most expect that by the end of 2025, the policy rate will hover around 3.5% or higher, rather than below this level. Most believe that Trump will have a negative impact on the U.S. economy and exacerbate inflation.

This will make the Federal Reserve's job more challenging, especially since Trump prefers lower rates, which led to conflicts with Powell during his first term as the Fed chairman did not yield to his demands.

English believes that the Federal Reserve will face more constraints this time, potentially leading to a slower pace of interest rate cuts than expected. However, due to a lack of clarity, he anticipates that Powell will not signal anything on Thursday. He said:

"The situation is very uncertain, and if you are at the Fed, this is a very good reason to provide as little policy guidance as possible."

Article forwarded from: Jin Shi Data