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Today's Picks

Bank of Japan reportedly considering delaying rate hike

Putin says Russia is ready to strike back on all fronts

Israel and Kazakhstan may reach an agreement on the exchange of detained persons by the end of this month

Nasdaq 100 Index announces annual composition adjustments

China's total social financing scale increased by 29.4 trillion yuan in the first 11 months

China Securities Regulatory Commission: Resolutely implement the important requirement of "stabilizing the property and stock markets"

Wang Xin, Director of the Research Department of the Central Bank: The reserve requirement ratio and interest rates will be lowered at the appropriate time

Ministry of Finance: A more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented next year

Market Review

Last Friday, the US dollar index hovered around the 107 mark and finally closed down 0.071% at 106.94, still holding at a high level in more than two weeks and achieving its best weekly performance in a month. U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, with the two-year Treasury yield closing at 4.247% and the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.396%. It is worth noting that the 3-month/10-year Treasury yield curve has ended its inversion for the first time since early November 2022.

As the U.S. dollar remained strong, spot gold moved further away from its five-week high, falling below the $2,650 mark and eventually closing down 1.22% at $2,648.39 per ounce, but still rose for the week on the back of expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. Spot silver eventually closed down 1.36% at $30.57 per ounce.

As the market worried that additional sanctions against Russia and Iran might tighten supply, while interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States would help boost fuel demand, the two oils stopped falling for two weeks. WTI crude oil once approached the 71 mark, and finally closed up 1.45% at $70.67 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.24% at $74.08 per barrel.

The three major U.S. stock indexes rose and fell. The Dow fell 0.20%, falling for the seventh consecutive trading day, the Nasdaq rose 0.12%, and the S&P 500 closed flat. The Dow fell 1.82% for the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.64%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.34%. Broadcom rose more than 24%, and its market value exceeded the $1 trillion mark for the first time. Intel closed down 2.12%, Nvidia fell 2.25%, AMD fell 2.83%, AMD fell 3.9%, Navitas fell 4.44%, and Nvidia's double-long ETF fell 4.6%.

Major European stock indices rose and fell. Germany's DAX30 index closed down 0.1%; Britain's FTSE 100 index closed down 0.14%; and Europe's STOXX 50 index closed up 0.05%.

Hong Kong stocks opened lower and fell throughout the day, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 2.09% at 19,971.24 points. The Hang Seng Technology Index closed down 2.63% at 4,479.6 points. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index's market turnover was HK$158.477 billion. On the market, department stores and retail sectors rose, while Chinese brokerage stocks, domestic insurance stocks, and domestic real estate stocks were sluggish throughout the day, technology and Internet stocks fell, auto stocks fluctuated and fell, and non-ferrous metals stocks fell in late trading. In terms of individual stocks, Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) rose 3.2%; Longfor Group (00960.HK) fell 7.3%, CR Land Development (01209.HK) fell 6.4%, Zijin Mining Group (02899.HK) fell 5.5%, Budweiser Asia Pacific (01876.HK) and Xpeng Motors (09868.HK) fell 6%, Geely Automobile (00175.HK) and China Resources Beer (00291.HK) fell more than 5%, Bilibili (09626.HK) fell 4.6%, and Meituan (03690.HK) fell 3.7%.

The three major A-share indexes opened low and fell. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.01% and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.23%. The ChiNext Index fell 2.48%. On the market, Douyin concept stocks rose sharply, and many stocks such as Zhangyue Technology, Zhejiang Culture Internet, and Shengguang Group hit the daily limit; the tourism sector strengthened, and Qujiang Cultural Tourism and Dalian Shengya hit the daily limit for two consecutive days; in addition, retail concept, media, public transportation and other sectors led the gains; lithium mining concept, quantum technology concept, national defense and military industry, real estate, brewing, diversified finance, securities and other sectors led the decline. The total market turnover exceeded 2 trillion yuan.

International News

1. According to Kyodo News: The Bank of Japan is considering postponing interest rate hikes.

2. The German central bank has comprehensively lowered its forecast for German economic growth.

3. Market news: The European Central Bank will release data on its emergency anti-epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) once a month starting from January 8 next year.

4. Putin: Be ready to fight back against opponents on all fronts. Russian troops made progress in the battle of Kurakhovo, but Ukraine has not responded yet.

5. The Trump team will consider Orban's proposal for a Christmas ceasefire in Ukraine. The US Central Command said it would deploy an aircraft carrier strike group to the region under its jurisdiction.

6. Leader of the Syrian "Hyderabad Tahrir al-Sham": No intention to confront Israel. The United States said it has made direct contact with the Syrian Hyderabad Tahrir al-Sham. Source: Russia withdraws troops from northern Syria but retains key bases.

7. An exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas for detained personnel may be reached by the end of this month. Israel will expand Jewish settlements on the Golan Heights under its control, planning to double the population.

8. Russian President Vladimir Putin extended the ban on the sale of oil and oil products in response to the crude oil price cap until June 30, 2025. Two Russian ships capsized, causing oil product spills.

9. A fire broke out at an oil refinery in Zawiya, Libya.

10. The Nasdaq 100 Index announced the results of its annual constituent stock adjustments: Palantir, MicroStrategy, and Axon will be added to the index, while Illumina, AMD, and Moderna will be removed.

11. Tesla Model S price increase in the United States: The price of the Model S in the US market will be increased from US$74,990 to US$79,990, and the price of the Model S Plaid will be increased from US$89,990 to US$94,990.

12. After the U.S. Court of Appeals rejected TikTok’s temporary injunction, TikTok’s response will be submitted to the Supreme Court.

13. Trump and ABC reached a settlement on the defamation lawsuit.

14. Apple CEO Cook went to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump, and the two had dinner together.

15. According to Fox News: OpenAI founder Sam Altman will donate $1 million to the inaugural fund of US President-elect Trump.

16. French President Macron appointed François Bayrou as the new Prime Minister.

17. The United Kingdom officially joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

18. Former professional football player Mikheil Kavelashvili was elected as the new president of Georgia.

19. Situation in South Korea: ① The ruling party of South Korea refuses to establish a cooperation mechanism with the opposition party; ② Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the largest opposition party in South Korea, will no longer push for the impeachment procedure against Acting President Han Deok-soo; ③ The South Korean prosecutors summoned Yoon Seok-yeol but were rejected and will summon him again; ④ Han Dong-hoon, the leader of the ruling party of South Korea, will announce on Monday whether he will continue to serve as the party leader.

Domestic News

1. Central Bank: At the end of November, the balance of broad money (M2) was 311.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. In the first 11 months of 2024, RMB loans increased by 17.1 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 19.39 trillion yuan; the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 29.4 trillion yuan, 4.24 trillion yuan less than the same period last year.

2. China Securities Regulatory Commission: Resolutely implement the important requirement of "stabilizing the property and stock markets" and effectively maintain the stability of the capital market.

3. Dong Jianguo, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Reform and improve the commercial housing sales system, and vigorously and orderly promote the sales of existing homes.

4. Wang Xin, Director of the Research Department of the People's Bank of China: We will lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in a timely manner and increase monetary and credit supply.

5. Ministry of Finance: We will implement a more proactive fiscal policy next year to ensure that the fiscal policy continues to be effective and more powerful.

6. Ministry of Finance and State Administration of Taxation: Implement preferential personal income tax policies on personal pensions nationwide.

7. Ministry of Commerce: From January to November this year, the actual amount of foreign capital used nationwide was 749.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%.

8. Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce: Introduce more pragmatic measures, continuously release consumption potential, and speed up the issuance of policy documents to promote the initial public offering economy.

9. Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission: We must continue to work hard to push the real estate market to stop its decline and stabilize, deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market, and clear the bottlenecks for medium and long-term funds to enter the market.

10. Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission: my country's GDP is expected to grow by about 5% this year; the new policy proposals have high gold content, and the specific plan will be unveiled at the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

11. The 13th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress was held in Beijing from December 21 to 25.

12. The People's Bank of China and nine other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for China's Pension Services to Serve the High-Quality Development of the Silver Economy".

13. Four departments issued the Special Action Plan for Digital Empowerment of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (2025-2027).

14. National Development and Reform Commission: Step up efforts to promote the development of the private economy and promote the introduction of the Private Economy Promotion Law as soon as possible.

15. National Energy Administration: Accelerate the establishment of systems and mechanisms that adapt to the new energy system, and vigorously promote the development and utilization of wind power and photovoltaic power.

16. Medical Insurance Bureau: In the first 11 months of this year, the total expenditure of my country's basic medical insurance fund was 2.63 trillion yuan.

17. The old-for-new exchange of consumer goods has driven sales of related products to exceed 1 trillion yuan.

18. The box office of the 2024 Lunar New Year movies exceeded 1.5 billion.

19. my country's grain output exceeded 1.4 trillion jin for the first time.

20. China and the United States renewed the agreement on scientific and technological cooperation between the two governments.

21. The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of polysilicon and bottle chip futures and options.

22. WeChat: We will continue to increase our crackdown on violations such as "using AI to impersonate celebrities for marketing and promotion."

23. Xiaomi President Lu Weibing: Xiaomi Auto is expanding its production capacity.

24. Doubao APP ranks second in the world in monthly activeness, second only to ChatGPT.

25. Official announcement: "A company in Hefei carried out illegal surrogacy": 5 people were taken criminal coercive measures.

Risk Warning

☆ 15:30, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech;

☆ 16:15-17:00, preliminary values ​​of manufacturing PMI for France/Germany/Eurozone/UK in December;

☆ 21:30, US New York Fed Manufacturing Index for December;

☆ At 4:45 the next day, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem delivered a speech.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data