BTC and USDT+USDC Dominance: overall picture and conclusions.
ON THE DOMINANCE OF STABLECOINS BTC.
BTC dominance met the conditions for growth after yesterday's post. And it is moving towards the target around EMA 200 of the four-hour timeframe (currently 57.60%).
From yesterday's review:
«… Maintaining this support today (EMA 50 of the four-hour timeframe, - note.) will instead open the path to continued growth of dominance, at least until the baseline targets up to 58.18%. More likely - up to the EMA 200 of the four-hour timeframe, which is currently at the level of 57.66%.»
The conclusion for now - there is a consolidation above the EMA 50 of the four-hour timeframe, there is an upward movement of dominance.
In the current movement of #BTC, altcoins are showing weakness in uncertainty. Meanwhile, dominance according to P73 Trend & Target Dynamics shows a transition to a stable uptrend on the two-hour timeframe.
BUT the potential of this movement is limited. Although dominance is at highs - it is already at the start of a descending structure. For now, we expect that 57.66% will be the maximum rebound in the dominance of #BTC, which we will likely see in the coming days. We remind you that BTC dominance according to our indicator has transitioned into a stable downtrend on the weekly timeframe. This allows us to talk about the start of the alt season.
And in the current upward rebound, both global/local trend resistances and the median line of the indicator have already been tested. It is VERY important to close the weekly candle below 57.95%. If there is no breakout - the altcoin market will likely reverse already from the middle of the week, December 18. Against the backdrop of the rising (as we expect) #BTC. We are waiting.
ON THE DOMINANCE OF STABLECOINS USDT + USDC.
The potential for a rebound after the active decline of November-December has yet to be realized. There are signals of a potential low on the daily, two-day, three-day, and weekly timeframes.
The same signal on the weekly timeframe was last seen at the end of March 2024. What happened to the market afterwards - everyone remembers.
Had these signals not been in anticipation of the Santa Claus rally and the expected year of the BTC bull run and alt season - such a combo would indicate a threat of a crash in the crypto market. BUT the current stage of the market, the long squeeze that has passed through altcoins (destroying margin traders with leverage of up to x2-4) - are arguments that after a short-term rebound of stablecoin dominance there will be a breakdown of reversal signals and a continuation of the decline in the dominance of #USDT + #USDC.
RESULTS: there will still be shocks on the way, in the coming days altcoins are still facing a decline. But neither the bull run of #BTC nor a global alt season is canceled. Regarding #ETH, we remind you that we are expecting a move to a new ATH in the coming weeks.