Bitcoin surged and then fell in the morning, and is currently hovering around the 100,000 mark. It can go up or down without forming a major fortress. There is nothing to analyze at this time, and there is only one word as I said before: “wait”!
The adjustment from 104088 is an adjustment to the rise since 58946. At present, there is no obvious upward push from the pin position, which means that the adjustment has not ended. From another perspective, the 100,000 integer mark has been broken psychologically and tacitly broken by the market, but it has not actually stabilized. Bitcoin needs to stabilize the 100,000 integer mark before the market can be driven up again.
What does it mean to stand firm?
I’ll give you an answer. Just look at 5 daily K-lines, or more than 5.
The only interesting thing this weekend was probably that Musk posted two pictures on social media on Saturday, one of which was a dog sweeping the city, and the other was an old horse carrying a pony. After the two pictures were released, the entire MEME sector moved abnormally, Babydog's daily increase reached 90%, Dogecoin rose slightly, and Pepe even hit a record high in the evening. The entire market has attracted a small climax, this is the power of Musk. I also reminded my brothers in last Saturday's article (Bitcoin returned to 100,000, did you blow up your position? Musk supports Dogecoin, and the $1 target is just around the corner?).
As sectors rotate, who is being left behind?
One month is enough time for most cryptocurrency sectors to rotate, but there are still some cryptocurrency sectors that have not been rotated yet.
These sectors may become the focus of market exploration in the future, or they may be completely abandoned by the market.
After research, the author found that the major crypto sectors that have been rotated from November 6 to December 7 include:
Public chain sector (Ethereum rose 50%, SUI rose 90%, ARB rose 120%); stablecoin sector (ENA rose 164%); AI sector (WLD rose 106%); CEX sector (Bitget rose 135%); DEX sector (Uniswap rose 100%); RWA sector (ONDO rose 147%); pledge and re-pledge sector (PUFFER rose 216%); NFT sector (BLUR rose 100%); memecoin sector (DOGE rose 111%, PEPE 131%); metaverse sector (SAND rose 261%); DEPIN sector (RENDER rose 115%); Web3 game sector (GALA rose 188%); decentralized storage sector (FIL rose 121%), and more than a dozen other crypto sectors. Most of them are leaders in their respective tracks or "new dark horses" emerging in major tracks.
However, there are still many sectors that have not been fully rotated, such as the Bitcoin sector, TON sector, Web3 game sector, Web3 social sector, etc. The leading tokens of these sectors and most of the tokens in the ecosystem have failed to perform strongly in this almost "full bloom" altcoin season.
The Bitcoin ecosystem has been a hotly discussed sector and track in the market many times in 2024, but it did not perform well when altcoins took off from November 6 to December 6. Among the Bitcoin ecosystem tokens in the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market value, Ordi increased by 41%, Sats increased by 31%, and DOG increased by 55%. None of them increased by more than 100%.
The TON sector and track have also become the focus of the market many times in 2024, and multiple tokens have been launched on major mainstream exchanges, but the overall performance has not shown strong momentum. TON has increased by 44%, NOT by 53%, and DOGS by 51%. Other tokens have not yet entered the top 200 in terms of market capitalization, and most of the TON ecological tokens in the top 500 in terms of market capitalization have failed to achieve returns of more than 100%.
In the Web3 game sector, GALA currently has the highest market value, with an increase of 188%, but this is mainly reflected in the infrastructure level. In terms of specific game products, although GMT, ACE, etc. have also increased by more than 50%, the increase has not exceeded 100%, and the market has not yet decided to fully pay for them.
The same is true for the Web3 social sector. In the list of the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market value, Web3 social-related cryptocurrencies failed to make the list. This also seems to mean that the development of the Web3 social track is still in its early stages, and the market has not found a good enough investment target in it.
However, although these sectors have not performed strongly enough, it may mean that the sector rotation has not yet ended and structural opportunities still exist.
How long will the copycat season last?
The copycat season has lasted for a whole month, and when it will end has become the focus of market attention.
The author believes that the end time of the alt season needs to be analyzed according to a time span of one or two weeks. The first month of the alt season is divided into three stages: the start-up stage (Bitcoin 69,000U-90,000U), the acceleration stage (90,000U-99,000U), and the full blossoming stage (99,000U officially breaks through 100,000U). The first stage lasts for one week, from November 6 to November 14; the second stage lasts for nine days, from November 14 to November 23; the third stage lasts for two weeks, from November 23 to December 5.
If Bitcoin fails to break a new high for two consecutive weeks, for example, it fails to break through 110,000 U within two weeks, this may mean that the market lacks new liquidity, and the alt season may end. In addition, the same is true for Ethereum. If Ethereum fails to continue to increase its price based on 4,000 U within two weeks, it is also likely to mean that the market is weak.
In addition, the US Ethereum spot ETF has seen net inflows for seven consecutive days. If there is a net outflow, it may also mean that a turning point has appeared in this round of altcoin season.
The cryptocurrency copycat market has already reached a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars, which naturally gives rise to some market rules.
The beginning of the altcoin season is often triggered by a major event, such as the approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, or Trump's victory in the US presidential election on November 6. After these two events, the entire crypto market started a crazy bull market, which often lasted for a month or even several months.
However, the amount of money flowing into the crypto market is limited, and the alt season will end one day. Often, the more enthusiastic the alt season is, the shorter its duration will be. If Bitcoin and Ethereum fail to reach new highs again within a week or two, this may be a warning signal worthy of attention.
