Bitcoin climbed to $102,500 on December 12, marking the week's highest point, possibly due to Trump reiterating at the New York Stock Exchange opening ceremony that the U.S. will do great things for the cryptocurrency industry.
However, after the European Central Bank announced a rate cut of 1 basis point and hinted at further dovish signals, it triggered turmoil in the bond market, ultimately dragging down risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, due to the Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeding expectations, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 6.5 basis points to 4.34%, while the Nasdaq and S&P indices fell by 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively; gold prices also dropped by 1.8%, closing at $2,706.
As of today (13th) when this article is being written, Bitcoin is still hovering around the $100,000 mark, currently quoted at $100,500.
Bitcoin price prediction: key support is the 20-day EMA.
Bitcoin found support around $94,000 when it surged sharply on December 10. From a macroeconomic perspective, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another basis point in December, which may be positive for the performance of risk assets.
However, Bitcoin currently faces resistance at the historical high of $104,088. If it fails to break through this level, it may trigger short-term selling pressure, leading to increased price volatility and potentially more leveraged liquidations.
To maintain the upward trend, Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance zone of $101,351 to $104,088. Only then could it further climb to $113,331, or even challenge $125,000.
If it falls below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of around $96,133, it would indicate that bulls are taking profits, with $90,000 becoming a key support level.
If Bitcoin falls below $90,000, it may drop to the 50-day moving average of $85,945, and the 200-day moving average, known as the 'key bull-bear line', is also worth watching, currently around $68,039.
Ether ($ETH) also performed exceptionally well, with a daily increase of 1.5%, hovering around the $4,000 mark. Driven by the continued inflow into Ethereum spot ETFs and an increasingly active on-chain ecosystem, $ETH is expected to break through the $5,000 mark for a new high.
The growing FOMO among investors and increasing institutional investments will push Bitcoin's price to $150,000 by mid-2025. This dual momentum is driving the recovery of the cryptocurrency market, making Bitcoin an 'essential' asset in portfolios.
The participation of financial institutions has become a revolutionary factor. Financial institutions have expanded their influence in the Bitcoin space through direct holdings, spot ETFs, and collaborations with cryptocurrency companies, thereby enhancing account liquidity and reputation. Meanwhile, FOMO sentiment continues to explode, with the $100,000 mark becoming a psychological trigger point, making investors eager to participate to capitalize on the upward momentum.
When Bitcoin hits a new high, a snowball effect occurs. Investors flock in, seizing the opportunity, driving up prices, and attracting more participants.
Other factors include persistent inflation and geopolitical instability, further increasing Bitcoin's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Progress in regulation under Trump, including the appointment of a pro-crypto SEC chairman, is expected to bring clarity and greater confidence to the market. Short-term sell-offs do not affect the long-term optimistic outlook; a 'perfect storm' is forming, with Bitcoin projected to reach $150,000 by mid-2025.