Yesterday, Bitcoin rebounded and consolidated after a spike. In the evening, the U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, indicating poor economic conditions and a pressing need for interest rate cuts to stimulate economic recovery. Bitcoin rose, returning above 100k in just one night, as anticipated in yesterday's article (Bitcoin performs a heavenly needle, nearly 210,000 people liquidated; where will the market head after the dramatic shock?).
Yesterday's sharp drop mainly targeted heavily long positions and does not indicate a trend reversal to bearish. After a significant spike, new entrants are inevitably filled with fear, clamoring that the earlier they enter, the larger their profits will be; however, many remain skeptical. Ordinary investors often maintain a bearish outlook after a significant drop, resulting in their short positions being trapped, as we are currently in a phase of indicator recovery; if one rushes to short, they will inevitably enter at a low point. Therefore, the normal operational strategy is to buy on dips.
Bitcoin broke 100,000 for the first time the day before yesterday and surged to 104,600, which is a false break; it is now undergoing second and third tests. If the next pullback can close above 100,000, and if it does not fall back below 100,000 in the short term, then the next strong resistance level will be 107,300 (once 104,600 holds, it will quickly push to this level). If the price rises to 110,000 - 120,000, it would take a significant spike to drop back below 100,000; normal pullbacks will not easily break through whole number thresholds. Once this point is firmly established, the bears must remember it! Therefore, newcomers should not rashly short; one should not assume that just because it has risen a lot, one can short. The logic of a bull market is not that simple.
Weekends are usually a time when Bitcoin consolidates while altcoins perform wildly.
(1) Ethereum
Observing the strength of the rebound, funds are clearly more inclined to flow into Ethereum, which has returned to 4000 points after a 9-month interval and is likely to break 4200 in the next couple of days. In the subsequent market developments, the era of the Ethereum sector is about to arrive. Among the coins in this sector, those like LDO, OP, ENS, SS, ETHFI, and W show potential and strong movements in the short term, particularly ENA. As for the other coins, they either exhibit characteristics of a bear market, face significant selling pressure, or their own coin properties are not ideal.
(2) Doge
The price of Bitcoin makes it difficult for ordinary retail investors to reach, but Dogecoin (Doge) is not the same. Once Dogecoin-related businesses are launched, its popularity will certainly trigger a global surge. If one does not position in Dogecoin in advance or hype it up, next month one might only be able to buy Dogecoin at 1 USD, as it is expected to double in the near term, within just a few days. Musk seems ready to initiate a pump for Dogecoin, with strong hints already apparent.
(3) Apt
Recalling the bear market period, Apt had a very strong upward trend, rising several times from 2 USD, reportedly driven by Koreans, even leading to the saying 'one Apt, one apartment.' However, in this round of market, Sui, which is also a twin star with Apt, has a market cap of 42 billion USD, while Apt is only 16 billion USD. In the crypto space, pumping is the most convincing performance. If the descending trend line in the chart can be strongly broken, it may indicate that the big players have entered the market. The next six months will be a period for various big players in the crypto space to showcase their strategies—if one misses this six months, they will have to wait another four years.
From June to October this year, the market has been in a volatile state. After October, as long as one maintains a buy-on-dips strategy, profits can generally be made each month. Even if capital drops from 100,000 USD to 50,000, it can quickly recover through buying on dips. Comparing to the Nasdaq's ten-year trend, it has generally shown an upward trend, with no collapse-style declines, only regular pullbacks.
Long-term short positions are absolutely inadvisable unless one is willing to face liquidation or miss this bull market. The true top of the current bull market has not yet been established, as many institutions in the U.S., such as BlackRock, continue to see their acquisition costs rise while their Bitcoin holdings increase. BlackRock's Bitcoin holdings have now surpassed that of gold, with many institutions entering Bitcoin around 90,000. Long-term short positions are undoubtedly a path to self-destruction; no amount of capital can withstand such losses.
This morning, an additional 2 billion USD was added, making it difficult for the coin price to decline, and the market share of altcoins has slightly increased, suggesting that the altcoin season may have arrived. With ETH breaking through 4000 points, the altcoin market is about to open a fierce competition reminiscent of the Spring and Autumn and Warring States periods!