Ordi has once again made a bunch of people rich, including those who held onto the initial mint and are not selling it now, with the highest single account making over 7 million USD. Although they won’t, can’t, and don’t need to show off anything, this is indeed a fact.
Therefore, it is very valuable to think about how much you have earned from this, what you have missed, and whether these logics will help you find the next thousand-fold opportunity.
It's like MC invested in EOS and ended up losing miserably, but then they used the same logic to invest heavily in SOL and became the VC with the highest return in the last bull market - although it later became the worst VC again because of the explosion.
Let’s get back to the topic.
When Ordi first came out, the concept of "the first meme on the Bitcoin chain" made me think that it is possible that if Bitcoin rises to 100,000 in the future, the "capital spillover" received will also be very large.
What I regretted most at that time was that I didn’t get my big friends to buy in more than 20% or more.
However, the originally expected "capital outflow" did not wait until the halving in May next year. With many people optimistic, a large amount of speculative funds rushed into the market and quickly reached a high of 29, which was beyond expectations.
In the market, one of the biggest weaknesses of human nature is “losing original judgment when the market goes up or down.”
So, at that time, I thought that maybe it was a true value discovery, and 100 was just a small goal.
However, when ORDI fell to 15 and broke below the key downtrend line, I felt that the market did not recognize it, "Maybe it's because only Chinese people are playing it?" and so on.
I sold most of my shares and was quite relieved when the price dropped to 3. I also felt numb - I didn't know who would still be interested in it.
I completely forgot the original expectation that "when Bitcoin reaches 100,000, Ordi will rise to 100", because "one rise and one fall will lose the original judgment".
However, no one expected that in a very short period of time, as soon as Binance listed the coin, funds and the forces behind it intervened, leading to an unlimited rise.
It's really sad.
The fear brought about by a decline is really great - perhaps this fear is also the reason why I dare not ask my big friends to buy, because if the judgment is right, it is good, but the market will not always be as we think in the short term, so, when it falls, both parties will be under psychological pressure.
Think about it for a moment: the judgment of the benchmark should not be affected by market quotations.
Just like the current price of Ordi is 20, but it does not mean that it is different from the previous 3. It is just that short-term speculative funds in the market have poured into it again, and a new group of promoters have been replaced to continue the promotion.
As for whether it falls back to 3 or rises directly to 100, these are all market quotations.
For real investors, they should ignore the quotation and only focus on their own logic and goals.
So the correct approach may be: investors only make money once, that is, if they judge the value of "the first meme on the Bitcoin chain" and how much it is worth when Bitcoin is 100,000, then they pay for this logic and completely ignore the quotes in the market.
For example, if you think the above vision is worth 100, then get 100. Ignoring 3 or 90 may sound stupid, but it is actually a wise move.
Here is a quote from Jiu Shen in his article "Getting off too early is just because the vision is too small":
The vast majority of early Bitcoin players have already gotten off the train, and many people have watched the price of Bitcoin soar without getting on board.
This is good news for us, because if they were all in the car now, would the price of the currency still be tens of thousands of yuan?
There may be many reasons why people hesitate to get on the bus and are eager to get off, but the most important one is that the vision in their hearts is not big enough.
Actually, many things are easier said than done. To be honest, when ordi rose from 1 to 29, I was very calm and didn’t even look at the market in the middle. But when it started to fall all the way to around 22, I was a little scared - I guess I had completely forgotten my initial willingness at that time, and I was probably thinking about how low it would fall.
Until it fell below the so-called key support of 15, which was pointed out by the technical analysis that I despised, I could no longer hold on and started selling most of the stocks at 15.
When it drops to 3, ordi is actually no different from when it was 29. The original judgment has nothing to do with the quotation - note that this is different for different targets and different events.
Just like you can’t think that EOS is blockchain 3.0 at the beginning, and watch it fail to produce anything for several years, and then continue to brainwash yourself after the team has collapsed. That’s not called vision, that’s called a scam.
I hope readers can distinguish the differences in different situations.
So I evaluate myself. In the case of Ordi, I clearly found that my speculation was greater than my investment. It doesn’t matter whether it is right or wrong. Just like a meme, there is almost no investment element. In fact, the core is nothing more than thinking about two questions:
If I speculate on ordi and use K-line, market sentiment and market quotations to influence my buying and selling behavior, what is my chance of winning?
Investing in Ordi, thinking that it is possible for him to obtain Bitcoin's capital spillover in the long term and obtain that expectation in the future, so that he can achieve greater returns than Bitcoin. How high is my chance of winning?
If it is the latter, why would we make decisions based on the former when the market quotes are different? This is actually the weakness of human nature.
I feel that the content and thoughts I write are becoming more and more profound, and will be more inspiring to VCs and old players, but are becoming less and less helpful to novices.
Newbies are still at the stage of understanding the common shouting orders and insider trading in the cryptocurrency circle. In fact, the most cost-effective thing is not to shout orders and pay attention to the stupid market, but to constantly improve their own investment framework - these things are what help me make big money occasionally in this market.
Improving the framework and sharing it publicly, getting validation and/or self-rebuttal will probably be a very interesting thing to look back on in the distant future.
Above, I actually talked about an investment framework (I have talked about many speculation frameworks, which are still useful), but there are some targets that can be applied to the investment framework. Therefore, I will talk about a few frameworks at the end of the article:
1. The price of ordi will still fluctuate greatly.
2. The entire BRC20 track was activated by Binance listing.
3. There will not be only one Ordi on the BRC20 track, but there will definitely not be several.
4. Sats has been minted for several months, and the currency holding address is 40,000. If there is support, it can also enjoy spillover. But most other community orders will be completely zero.
5. The high volatility of Ordi, whether it rises or falls, will attract overseas attention to the BTC ecosystem and attract more funds.
6. These funds will look for targets that are more worthy of attention.
Lightning Network and RGB are not good targets. The former is not a blockchain and has nothing to do with Bitcoin. Although it can also rise, the risk becomes higher.
RGB and the like are too old, and the originally dead ecosystem has come out one after another because of the popularity of Ordi, which is meaningless.
The Runes protocol created by the founder of ordinalsw needs to be paid special attention to. It will 100% trigger fomo, but it is likely to end in a mess. This founder has a great influence on the community, but he does not have the temperament of Vitalik, so it is not necessarily a good thing.
In the minds of many programmers, the more things a project party does, the stronger its presence, the better, but this is not the case in the cryptocurrency circle.
If the founder Domo's presence is too strong in the matter of BRC20, being like this today and like that tomorrow, it is actually not a good thing.
In addition to runes, the pipe that the community was eager to send him has received greater attention, but it seems that there are also related problems.
The atom protocol is relatively complete and completely decentralized, and the community has developed on its own once the protocol is released. However, although the ecosystem above is better than pipe and the like, it is still rudimentary. If it can gain the favor of some big funds and big institutions, there may be some opportunities.
Once you have seen the sea, all other waters are but puddles; once you have seen Mount Wu, all other clouds are but puddles. Good opportunities like Ordi are hard to come by, and if you miss Mint, you may miss it for the rest of your life.
