Macroeconomic
1. The key data this week lies in Wednesday's ADP and Friday's non-farm payroll data; the former is expected to be lower than the previous value (bullish), while the latter is expected to be higher than the previous value (bearish). The unemployment rate is expected to rise (bullish) — this week, the employment data shows divergence and is difficult to gauge, so pay attention to real-time data announcements.
2. Several Federal Reserve officials will speak this week, with a focus on the content of Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech on Friday.
3. Last Friday and last month, the performance of U.S. stocks was impressive, particularly in the robotics and chip sectors, leading to strong performance in tech stocks. The cryptocurrency market received some boost, especially tokens linked to AI, such as GLM, WLD, and ARKM. Continue to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks this week.
4. Recently, BTC has maintained high levels, and the short-term performance of altcoins has outpaced it. There are obvious market rebalancing and adjustment actions, likely signaling the start of an altcoin season.
5. Liquidation data shows that current short liquidations > long liquidations, indicating that the bullish foundation of the market remains unchanged, with trading still primarily focused on low leverage long positions.
6. Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to show net inflows; although the inflow amount has decreased compared to before, the bullish sentiment in the market remains strong, with no signs of capital flight. Funding continues to look optimistic.
7. XRP leads the gains, with established altcoins starting to recover, while the status of traditional coins faces some impact. In terms of allocation choices, try to avoid those with a strong traditional standing and instead focus on coins with significant room for catch-up — similar to the strategy of 'light on large caps, heavy on individual stocks' in the stock market.