In the trading arena, many people will preset an 'ideal price point', thinking that they will not let go of their chips until that 'psychological high point' is reached. This is a natural inclination towards profit, but this mindset of solely predicting price movements actually digs a 'psychological trap' for oneself, making it easy to fall into various predicaments.
Expectation, much like an invisible 'tightening spell'
As the price steadily climbs toward the preset target, a sudden pullback occurs, and greed takes over, thinking that a bit more increase could yield more profit, thus choosing to hold still and wait. However, the market is unpredictable, and the wind shifts suddenly, causing the price to turn downward, leading to frustration over missing the best take-profit moment. Conversely, when the price does not rise as expected but instead falls continuously, the regret for not securing profits earlier feels like a lump in the throat. Such expectations tightly bind the trader, causing them to lose direction amidst gains and losses.
The market, an uncontrollable 'giant'
The essence of trading lies in flexibly responding to the market, rather than futilely predicting its trajectory. The market, this 'behemoth', is influenced by a multitude of complex factors such as macroeconomic conditions, micro-industry dynamics, and sudden social events, and will not move even a fraction according to individual will. The delusion of accurately grasping market ups and downs based solely on personal predictions is akin to attempting to build a towering building on a soft sand pile—its foundation is unstable, and collapse can happen in an instant. Building trading strategies on predictions is a serious misinterpretation of the market's complex and random nature, destined to be heavily knocked down by the surging tides of the market.
Emotion, the 'culprit' that disturbs the chessboard
Once the price deviates from the expected path, anxiety spreads rapidly, and feelings of unwillingness arise. Under the influence of such negative emotions, one often loses rationality and makes impulsive decisions. This may involve blindly adding positions in an attempt to lower costs and turn the situation around; or stubbornly holding onto losing positions, hoping the market will 'change its mind'. However, most of the time, these emotional actions only exacerbate losses and add to regrets.
So how can one break free from the shackles of 'predictive thinking'?
Draft a clear trading 'roadmap'
Before opening a trade, combine your own risk tolerance and in-depth analysis of market conditions to finalize precise take-profit and stop-loss points. This is akin to dropping a solid anchor for a ship in a turbulent sea; when the price reaches the preset limits, it is imperative to overcome hesitation and execute operations decisively, without being disturbed by fluctuations along the way, and to avoid casually changing established goals, strictly adhering to the trading bottom line.
Uphold probability thinking to 'view the chessboard'
One must be clear that the market is essentially a 'big chessboard' full of uncertainties, and there are no guarantees of winning. Focus on uncovering trading strategies that have been tested in practice and have a reasonable win rate, abandoning the obsession with perfection in a single trade, accumulating small victories for greater triumphs, and solidifying profitable fruits over multiple trading rounds.
Skillfully use batch take-profit to 'lock in profits'
When the market offers you an 'olive branch of profit', do not be greedy for it all; consider adopting a method of reducing positions in batches, decisively harvesting part of the profit. In this way, you can genuinely hold on to part of the results while leaving a psychological 'buffer zone' for subsequent fluctuations, leading to a more stable and calm trading mindset.
Please remember, the soul of trading lies in rigorously controlling risk and decisively executing actions, rather than obsessively entangling oneself in predicting the market's next move. Let go of obsessions, embrace adaptability, and you will be able to navigate the trading journey smoothly.