Today is Monday, December 2, 2024. The cryptocurrency market enters a new week, and I will update the macroeconomic events for this week. Last week, affected by the Thanksgiving holiday, the market's performance was relatively sluggish, and liquidity was noticeably insufficient. From a macro perspective, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made it clear at the beginning of this month that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. This is not due to the strong job market in the U.S. and resilient economic growth, but rather because the inflation rate remains above the target level. Therefore, in the current economic environment, adjustments to monetary policy should be cautious, which means that Powell and other Federal Reserve officials are cautious about interest rate cuts in the coming months. As we enter December, the market will pay more attention to the Federal Reserve, particularly whether there will be further guidance on future interest rate adjustments in the upcoming FOMC meeting, especially regarding views on interest rate cuts next year. Before that, several Federal Reserve officials will speak this week. Notably, Powell will attend a conference hosted by The New York Times at 2 AM on Thursday and will be interviewed about the current economic situation and the Fed's monetary policy, so it’s important to pay attention to what Powell will say. In terms of U.S. economic data this week, we will receive labor market data. Later on Tuesday, job openings for October in the U.S. will be released; on Wednesday night, the November ADP employment numbers will be released, serving as a leading indicator for non-farm data, revealing employment growth in the U.S. private sector. The most critical point this week is the non-farm data and unemployment rate to be released on Friday, which will directly impact the Fed's interest rate decisions. Currently, the market predicts a 65% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on the 18th of this month, while the probability of no rate cut is 35%.

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