The global trend of interest rate cuts aids the recovery of the capital market.
From the recent policy dynamics of the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the global market is entering a new round of monetary easing. According to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by December this year has reached 62.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by January next year has also reached 14.8%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has announced a 50 basis point rate cut as expected, lowering the benchmark interest rate to 4.25%, continuing its policy of significant rate cuts for three consecutive times.
This reflects the backdrop of weak global economic growth and indicates that central banks around the world hope to alleviate economic downward pressure through easing policies. This is undoubtedly a significant positive for the capital market. Especially in the cryptocurrency market, compared to traditional markets, crypto assets are more sensitive to changes in liquidity. As funding costs decrease, the value of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may further rise.
Brazil plans to establish a national Bitcoin reserve: potentially sparking a global imitation trend.
A Brazilian congressman has officially proposed the establishment of a 'Bitcoin Sovereign Strategic Reserve', which is a move of profound significance. Congressman Eros Biondini's proposal indicates that developing countries have recognized Bitcoin's strategic value. Compared to traditional gold reserves, Bitcoin has stronger liquidity and more obvious distributed characteristics, enabling it to play a unique advantage in currency diversification.
This proposal may attract other emerging economies to follow suit. The global reserve asset landscape is quietly changing, and digital currencies may become an important component of new reserve assets. As the 'gold' of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin will undoubtedly be the biggest beneficiary.
Morocco's lifting of the cryptocurrency ban and the advancement of the UK's regulatory system: a clear trend towards legalization.
Morocco plans to lift the cryptocurrency ban that has been in place since 2017, which is significant for the entire North African region. As the process of cryptocurrency legalization advances, Morocco may attract more investors into its market. Additionally, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) also plans to officially implement cryptocurrency-related regulations by 2026, focusing on stablecoins, trading platforms, staking, and more. This indicates that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from a 'gray area' towards compliance and mainstream acceptance.
Morocco's actions send an important signal: even countries that previously had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrency are beginning to reassess its economic value and technological potential. Combined with the regulatory processes of developed countries like the UK, the next three years may see a significant wave of legalization for crypto assets.
CryptoQuant data: After the sell-off, a long-term accumulation opportunity may arise.
According to CryptoQuant data, long-term holders sold 728,000 Bitcoins in the past 30 days, the largest sell-off since April. On the surface, this reflects increased market selling pressure, but from a long-term perspective, it actually creates a lower price range for new funds to enter.
In addition, Grayscale has opened subscription for 17 token trust funds, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, to qualified investors, indicating that institutional investors still maintain strong interest in the cryptocurrency market. This institutional arrangement contrasts sharply with retail sell-offs and reflects that the current market's chips are shifting towards more 'committed' holders.
The expectation of interest rate cuts, institutional arrangements, and improvements in the global regulatory environment are creating a more favorable development environment for the cryptocurrency market. Legalization measures in countries like Morocco may become a watershed moment for emerging market countries in their attitude towards cryptocurrency, promoting broader acceptance globally.
The US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of 11,900 units yesterday, valued at $40.6 million.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 1,320 units yesterday, valued at $123 million.
BTC: Yesterday, Bitcoin's daily chart formed a spinning top, indicating an intensification of the battle between bulls and bears at this level. After a brief price pullback, there was a small rebound today accompanied by some volume. Indicator signals, the MACD is still above the zero axis, and bullish momentum has not completely faded. The RSI indicates that the price has not yet entered an overbought or oversold area, and there is potential for continued upward movement after the adjustment.
Overall, attention should be paid to whether the volume of the rebound can keep up in the short term. If the volume is small, there may be further corrections to explore the bottom in the future. The current adjustment is a typical healthy pullback, and the medium to long-term bull market logic remains unchanged.
ETH: Ethereum has seen a pullback influenced by Bitcoin, closing with a small bearish candle yesterday, supported at the 10-day moving average. It is expected to complete the relay from Bitcoin, making the future market worth looking forward to.
Altcoins: Recently, Bitcoin's market share seems to have shown signs of retreating from high levels, and it is likely to gradually enter a downward trend. This may mean that new opportunities are on the horizon for the altcoin market — potentially marking the start of an altcoin season. Currently, most altcoins remain at low levels, and funds may gradually flow in with sector rotations. Therefore, the most important strategy at this stage is to maintain a steady mindset and avoid frequent buying high and selling low due to market fluctuations, which could lead to missed opportunities.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 75 (Greed) #市场波动，加仓还是观望？