Mini Program: Daily summary of investment bank/institutional views
foreign
1. Goldman Sachs: Due to the risk of US tariffs, the pace of interest rate cuts in Asian countries is expected to slow down
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Asian central banks will be cautious about moving forward with further easing given the strength of the dollar and the risk of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Goldman Sachs chief Asia-Pacific economist Andrew Tilton said Goldman Sachs does not expect the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates further this week. Last week, Indonesian officials warned that the room to lower borrowing costs has narrowed due to political developments in the United States. Tilton said, "With tariffs likely to come and the dollar close to multi-decade highs, we think the pace of rate cuts will be quite slow. I think the dollar is also an important factor because exchange rates and exchange rate stability are very important to central banks in Asia."
2. Pansen Macro: Eurozone inflation will make the ECB cautious
Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono, analysts at Pansen Macro, wrote in a client note that a pick-up in euro zone inflation will prevent the European Central Bank from cutting interest rates further next month. Vistesen and Debono said that last week's business surveys highlighted the threat of a euro zone economic contraction, which may prompt calls for a 50 basis point rate cut instead of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December policy meeting. But according to Pansen Macro estimates, inflation will rise this month and exceed the ECB's 2% target. Economists say this will keep policymakers cautious, and the most likely decision is a 25 basis point rate cut.
3. UOB: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week
Lee Sue Ann, economist at UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, said in a research note that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to be the most aggressive central bank in the world in cutting interest rates, at least for now. The economist noted that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut interest rates by 75 basis points in just two meetings since August, and economic data has deteriorated since the October meeting. The economist added that although New Zealand's annual inflation rate is now back within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's target range, unemployment has risen to a four-year high and the economy is shrinking. UOB currently expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its policy rate by 50 basis points to 4.25% at its meeting on Wednesday.
4. Pansen Macro: Eurozone inflation will make the ECB cautious
Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono, analysts at Pansen Macro, wrote in a client note that a pick-up in euro zone inflation will prevent the European Central Bank from cutting interest rates further next month. Vistesen and Debono said that last week's business surveys highlighted the threat of a euro zone economic contraction, which may prompt calls for a 50 basis point rate cut instead of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December policy meeting. But according to Pansen Macro estimates, inflation will rise this month and exceed the ECB's 2% target. Economists say this will keep policymakers cautious, and the most likely decision is a 25 basis point rate cut.
domestic
1. CITIC Securities: It is not ruled out that the central bank will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50bps in December
CITIC Securities pointed out that according to calculations, there is basically no liquidity gap in December, but the misalignment of the rhythm of government bond supply and fiscal expenditure will cause disturbances to the capital market at the mid-month point. Combined with the maturity of MLF and seasonal factors, it is not ruled out that the central bank will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50bps in December, or use a variety of tools such as buyout reverse repurchase and treasury bond purchases to smooth out capital fluctuations. For the bond market, government bond supply pressure and policy expectation game will cause disturbances to interest rates, but as long as the central bank's protection of the capital market is sufficient, interest rates will still have room to fall. After the supply is gradually implemented, we can pay attention to the trading opportunities brought by the flattening of the curve.
2. CITIC Construction Investment: It is expected that core cities will stabilize first, and the transformation and commercial
CITIC Construction Investment’s investment strategy outlook for the real estate industry in 2025: Since the Politburo meeting at the end of September proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, policies at the central and local levels have continued to be introduced, and the market sentiment has significantly improved. Referring to the international experience of stopping falling and stabilizing, the downward cycle of housing prices in five overseas countries is about 5 to 10 years, with a decline of about 20% to 40%. Based on this, China's housing prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize around 2026. Looking forward to 2025, core cities are expected to take the lead in stabilizing, with the decline in important indicators narrowing, with sales area, newly started area, completed area, and investment falling by 8.3%, 17.9%, 7.7%, and 10.7% respectively. The real estate development business is still building a bottom, driven by the dividends of the "Six Mergers and Acquisitions" policy. It is recommended to pay attention to real estate companies that are transforming to new quality productivity. At the same time, preventing deflation risks has become an important consideration in current policies, and high-quality commercial real estate companies are recommended.
3. Huaxi Strategy: In the 2.0 phase of the new bull market, we will clear the bottlenecks for long-term funds to enter the market.
Huaxi Strategy released a research report, saying that the outlook for the market is: the capital side of the stock market is rebalanced, and the market is periodically fluctuating and consolidating. This round of "new quality bull" market has entered a healthy adjustment. First, investors have repriced the "Trump deal" and the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts; second, the previous profit-taking accumulated in A-shares has been settled, and the market trading sentiment has naturally cooled down. Looking forward to the future market, periodic consolidation of fluctuations is conducive to a more stable and long-term market. On the one hand, the China Securities Regulatory Commission pointed out that it is necessary to vigorously develop equity funds, especially index investment. The recent A500ETF related product positions are expected to bring incremental funds; on the other hand, the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in December to set the tone for next year's economic policies. Investors' policy expectations will still support risk appetite.
4. Investment strategy: The market is in the midst of a large-scale upward trend adjustment period. It is recommended to actively build positions at the end of the year.
The investment strategy research report believes that the recent market adjustment is the result of multiple factors such as excessive accumulation of previous gains, policy entering a vacuum period, companies facing performance pressure, frequent changes in the geopolitical situation, and the significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields. Currently, the market is in the adjustment period of a large-scale upward trend. It is recommended that investors take advantage of the market effects of the policy warm-up period and performance disclosure period to actively build positions at the end of the year or the beginning of next year, focusing on real estate and its industrial chain that are closely related to stable growth, as well as those with large space, strong policy support and catalyzed by technological progress. The direction of "intelligent medical care".
5. Investment strategy: Prices of most chemical products have risen recently, and the industry's capacity clearance and pro-cyclical demand are expected to resonate
China Merchants Strategy Research believes that the basic chemical (chemical products) industry cycle may have bottomed out. The prices of most chemical products have risen recently due to the optimization of the supply and demand pattern. The industry's capacity clearance and pro-cyclical demand are expected to resonate. In the past month, the prices of most chemical products such as methanol, fuel oil, polyethylene, and asphalt have risen under the resonance of supply and demand. On the policy side, the adjustment of export tax rebates for some products may help further clear the industry's capacity. Further promotion of the western development is expected to increase the demand for civil explosives and help reduce coal chemical costs. At present, the chemical industry is still in the stage of bottoming out in fundamentals, but profits may have bottomed out. Pay attention to civil explosives and tires with resonance of supply and demand, refrigerants with good downstream production schedules and supply quota constraints, and MDI that benefits from the recovery of real estate at home and abroad. In terms of the industrial chain, pay attention to the phosphorus chemical industry with an upward trend.
6. Guotai Junan: Beryllium is expected to become the king of value in future commercial fusion reactors
According to a research report by Guotai Junan Securities, beryllium is the king of value in future commercial fusion reactors. As the controlled nuclear fusion tokamak device enters the "deuterium-tritium fuel reaction" stage from "plasma control", beryllium will become the largest value part of commercial fusion reactors, accounting for 30%-40%. Nuclear fusion has opened up the upper limit, and beryllium's basic plate lies in the fields of military industry, aerospace, etc. The global beryllium industry chain is highly monopolized. Beryllium is a game for big countries. Only the United States, China, and Kazakhstan (former Soviet Union region) in the world have a complete beryllium industry chain. The United States is the world's largest country in terms of beryllium ore reserves and production. Domestically, due to the irreplaceable nature of beryllium in the fields of national defense, military industry, aerospace, and nuclear industry, the country attaches great importance to the beryllium industry in order to solve the strategic "stuck neck" problem.
7. Everbright Securities: The equity market has fluctuated greatly recently, and industries and sectors with large gains in the previous period are under certain pressure to pull back.
Everbright Securities released a research report that this week (November 18 to November 22), the convertible bond market fell slightly, but the decline was significantly less than the CSI All-Index. In terms of parity, the medium parity bonds rose the most, while the high parity bonds fell the most. In terms of rating, the medium-rated bonds rose the most. In terms of scale, the medium-scale bonds rose the most. Looking ahead to the future market, Everbright believes that the equity market has fluctuated greatly recently, and industries and sectors with large gains in the previous period have certain correction pressure. In terms of industry selection, it is appropriate to avoid industries with large gains in the previous equity market. Overall, compared with the equity market, the convertible bond market did not rise much in the early stage, and the cost-effectiveness is gradually showing, and there may be better performance in the future.
8. Haitong Securities: M&A and restructuring may become a new way for technology companies to go public, and investment in technology stocks is expected to increase
Haitong Securities Research Report believes that mergers and acquisitions may become a new way for technology companies to go public, and the investment in technology stocks is expected to rise. In September 2024, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the M&A Market of Listed Companies", which further improved the regulatory tolerance and opened up the space for cross-industry mergers and acquisitions. It is expected to stimulate market vitality and promote more high-quality M&A transactions. Combined with the current IPO market environment in my country, high-quality companies in the fields of semiconductors, artificial intelligence, new energy, etc. will achieve rapid listing through mergers and acquisitions, thereby integrating industrial chain resources and enhancing market competitiveness.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data