Markets expect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to be significantly different from that of the European Central Bank next year, as higher economic growth and inflation expectations in the U.S. will exacerbate the differences between the two major economies.

Market pricing shows that by the end of next year, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts will be only half of those of the European Central Bank, which is facing weak economic growth and inflation below target.

According to the forecasts compiled by Consensus Economics, as Trump prepares to cut taxes and increase tariffs, it is expected that the annual inflation rate in the U.S. will remain above 2% throughout 2025. In contrast, the inflation rate in the Eurozone is expected to fall below the European Central Bank's 2% target as early as February next year.

Capital Economics Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown stated: "We expect that due to the rising inflation risks, the Federal Reserve will adopt a rather cautious stance, while the European Central Bank will respond strongly to economic weakness, leading to a divergence in the easing cycles of both. "

This divergence highlights the growing concerns facing the Eurozone economy, with policymakers worried that a trade war potentially sparked by Trump could further damage the region's economy.

Over the past three years, as economies have experienced rising prices, inflation and monetary policies in most parts of the world have moved in sync. However, the initial steps taken by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and other Western central banks to ease policies this year could give way to a more uncoordinated approach by 2025.

Due to increasing concerns about a rebound in inflation, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose from 3.6% at the beginning of last month to 4.4% over the weekend.

The movement of the dollar has reversed, with interest rates being one of the driving factors. The dollar has been weakening since the summer, but during the U.S. presidential election, due to investor expectations that Trump's tariffs and tax policies would strengthen the dollar, it rebounded sharply against other major currencies.

This has pushed the euro down to near its lowest point in nearly two years, marking the largest sell-off since the energy crisis in 2022. Weak economic data further exacerbated the euro's turmoil, raising the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank at next month's meeting.

Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Samuel Tombs stated that the U.S. unemployment rate remains low enough and inflation expectations are high enough, "indicating that a resurgence of inflation is becoming likely."

He also added: "If Trump quickly implements his agenda, it is conceivable that the Federal Reserve will have to end its easing cycle early."

Richmond Fed President and FOMC voting member Barkin stated that restoring interest rates to a more 'neutral' level that no longer suppresses growth in order to continue combating inflation pressures "may happen quite slowly."

According to Consensus Economics data, economists now expect the U.S. economic growth rate for 2024 to be 2.7%, up from less than 1% predicted in October 2023. For next year, economists have raised the U.S. economic growth forecast to 1.9%, higher than the 1.6% expected in March.

In the Eurozone, growth forecasts have been downgraded to 0.7% for this year and 1.1% for next year. This summer, economists had projected a growth rate of 1.4% for the Eurozone in 2025. McKeown stated that some business surveys indicate that the Eurozone economy may fall into recession, "which would starkly contrast with the resilience of the U.S. economy."

Markets expect that by the end of next year, the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by more than 1.5%. This would lower the deposit rate from the current 3.25% to 2% as early as June, with further reductions before the end of the year. Economists surveyed by Consensus Economics expect the median deposit rate to reach 2.15% by December 2025.

In contrast, markets expect that by the end of next year, the Federal Reserve's rate cut will be less than 0.7% from the current rate level of 4.5%-4.75%. The median interest rate expected by economists is 3.375%.

Nomura Securities economist Andrzej Szczepaniak stated: "The European Central Bank's focus is increasingly shifting to concerns about economic growth rather than inflation worries. Ultimately, we believe the European Central Bank will be forced to lower interest rates below neutral to support the economy."

Article reposted from: Jinshi Data