Overview of important futures data and events for next week

1. November 25, to be determined, Unica will release data on sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production for the first half of November in Brazil's Center-South region. Previous data from Unica showed that sugar production in Brazil's Center-South for the second half of October reached 1.785 million tons, with a sugarcane crushing volume of 27.167 million tons, both lower than the same period last year. Wilmar International expects the number of closed sugar mills in Brazil to double this month. Pay attention to whether this data will further lower Brazil's Center-South sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production.

2. November 27, 3:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting. Although the second rate cut was carried out as expected earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance has weakened. Powell previously stated that the recent U.S. economic performance has been strong, and there is no need for the Federal Reserve to rush to cut rates. Pay attention to the views on the U.S. economy in this month's meeting minutes.

3. November 27, 21:30, U.S. Third Quarter Actual GDP Annualized Quarterly Rate Revision. Preliminary data previously released indicated that the U.S. Third Quarter Actual GDP Annualized Quarterly Rate increased by 2.8%, compared to a growth of 3% in the previous quarter. Recent U.S. economic performance has been strong; pay attention to whether the U.S. Department of Commerce will adjust the GDP Annualized Quarterly Rate upwards.

4. November 27, 23:30, U.S. October Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year. The U.S. September Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year recorded 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month, while the U.S. September Core PCE Price Index Month-on-Month increased by 0.3%, rebounding from the previous month (0.2%). The U.S. Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year continues to approach the Federal Reserve's 2% target, supporting the Federal Reserve's decision to slow the pace of rate cuts after the first significant cut. Pay attention to the results of this data release; if the PCE Price Index Year-on-Year shows a further decrease, it may delay the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

5. November 28, 20:00, Conab will release the results of the third sugarcane production survey for Brazil for the 2024/25 crop year. The results of the second sugarcane production survey by Conab indicate that Brazil's sugar production for the 2024/25 crop season is expected to be 45.9963 million tons, lower than the previously estimated 46.292 million tons in April; Brazil's sugarcane production for the 2024/25 crop season is expected to be 689.8 million tons, higher than the previously estimated 685.9 million tons in April. Pay attention to how this survey result adjusts the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production.

6. November 30, 9:30, China's official manufacturing PMI, composite PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and steel PMI for November. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index released in October was 50.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of month-on-month increases; the steel PMI recorded 54.6%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points month-on-month, marking two consecutive months of month-on-month increases, and the index returned to the expansion range after 19 months, indicating a rapid recovery in the short term for the steel industry. Pay attention to whether the steel PMI for November can further expand.

7. December 1, to be determined, the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries' ministerial meeting will be held, and the 57th OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting will be held. International oil prices have recently rebounded, mainly due to supply concerns brought about by the intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the delay in OPEC+ increasing production has also provided some support to the market; when OPEC+ will increase production has always been an important focus for the market. The market expects that this meeting will again delay the increase in production; pay attention to the actual results.

8. On November 25 and November 30, ITS, Amspec, and SGS will release Malaysian palm oil export data for November 1-25 and November 1-30; on November 25, MPOA will release Malaysian palm oil production data for November 1-20; on November 26, SPPOMA will release Malaysian palm oil production data for November 1-25. Palm oil prices have recently retreated from high levels due to market expectations of weak Malaysian palm oil export demand, while the main reason limiting the decline is that palm oil has entered a production reduction cycle. Pay attention to the release of multiple data this week.

9. Due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in the U.S. will be closed for one day on November 28, and trading of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, and raw sugar will be suspended. Trading of precious metals and U.S. crude oil futures contracts under CME will end early at 03:30 Beijing time on the 29th. Trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts under ICE will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 24th.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data