Mini Program: Daily Summary of Real Estate Industry Dynamics
Guangzhou: Notice on the cancellation of ordinary and non-ordinary residential standards in our city, effective December 1, 2024.
The Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Guangzhou and two other departments issued a notice to cancel the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties in Guangzhou, effective December 1, 2024. The original notice regarding the preferential policies for ordinary housing standards (Sui Guo Fang Zi [2005] No. 375) is also abolished.
First-tier cities have completely canceled the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, industry insiders: market activity is expected to continue to improve.
Today, Guangzhou announced the cancellation of standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, effective December 1, 2024. With this, all four first-tier cities have officially announced the complete cancellation of ordinary and non-ordinary residential property standards. Chen Wenjing, Director of Policy Research at the China Index Academy, believes that the relevant policies further reduce home purchase costs and promote the release of home buying demand. The cancellation of the ordinary residential standard provides further support for the continuous repair of the first-tier city market, and short-term market activity is expected to continue to improve, which will also help stabilize the national market. According to market transaction data, the China Index Academy's monitored data shows that in October, the sales area of new residential properties in first-tier cities increased by 65% month-on-month and 31% year-on-year. With policy support and the efforts of real estate companies, the short-term activity of the new housing market in first-tier cities is expected to continue, and the sales area of new homes may continue to improve. (The Paper)
Shenzhen's "Interest-Free Down Payment" projects defaulted, with victims continuing to "grow", involving over ten projects.
A new situation has emerged regarding the Shenzhen "Interest-Free Down Payment" projects that were widely promoted two years ago and attracted many homeowners. According to homeowners, starting from June this year, the third-party company designated by the developer failed to repay the bank on time, leading to default issues. Journalists found that the third-party service company providing loans to homeowners, Jiang Guangyuan, stated that the homeowners' repayment funds were misappropriated and may be related to some developers, and claimed ignorance of the interest-free down payment situation. Meanwhile, at a communication meeting between homeowners and developers, the estimated losses reported by developers, homeowners, and third parties varied significantly. According to incomplete statistics from homeowners, more than ten projects in Longgang, Pingshan, Guangming in Shenzhen, as well as Dongguan, are currently involved. Legal experts believe that the "interest-free down payment" may involve illegal down payment loans, and related persons may face administrative penalties or criminal charges. (One Finance)
Wu Xiaoqiu: The real estate market cannot return to the previous era; policy adjustments focus on stopping the decline and stabilizing.
Wu Xiaoqiu, former Vice President of Renmin University of China, stated at the 21st Global Annual Meeting of the International Financial Forum that the policies for real estate have essentially been put in place, primarily focusing on reducing down payments and significantly lowering interest payments for residents buying homes. "It should be said that the adjustment of real estate policies mainly aims to stop the decline and stabilize the market, of course, our real estate market cannot return to the previous era. The rapid growth of real estate prices in the past has brought a painful burden to China's future economy, and we need to learn from this. However, stabilizing the real estate market remains an important policy goal of the Chinese government, rather than returning to past years."
Heilongjiang Province establishes a full-chain supervision mechanism in the real estate registration field, comprehensively promotes the "delivery of housing and certificates simultaneously" work mechanism.
Recently, the Heilongjiang Provincial Department of Natural Resources, together with ten provincial and municipal departments, jointly issued the "Opinions on Improving the Full Chain Supervision Mechanism for New Commodity Housing Construction Projects". This opinion addresses prominent issues such as inadequate responsibility implementation, imperfect supervision mechanisms, incomplete registration requirements, and untimely post-event supervision in state-owned land new commodity housing construction projects, further standardizing the real estate market order, and comprehensively promoting the "delivery of housing and certificates simultaneously" work mechanism, ensuring that the "difficulties in obtaining certificates" issue is eliminated at the source and prevented in its infancy, effectively safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of the public. The opinion clarifies the two major directions for strengthening the supervision of new commodity housing construction projects: on one hand, strengthening the full chain management of construction projects, deeply standardizing management for potential hazards, and forming a full chain supervision mechanism with layered and interconnected links; on the other hand, enhancing platform collaboration and information sharing, continuously improving the service efficiency of enterprise processes.
Sichuan Shehong: No land supply to villa-type real estate development projects or private estates, and no small plots of low-density residential land supplied to individuals.
On November 20, the People's Government of Shehong City, Suining City, Sichuan Province, released a notice on the implementation of the "3.0 version of policy measures to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry in the urban planning area of Shehong City". In suburban areas that lack public transport but have good scenic and locational conditions, after full discussion, planning land indicators may be optimized, and the land supply standard that the floor area ratio must not be lower than 1.0 will be stopped. There will be no land supply to villa-type real estate development projects, private estates, or individuals for small plots of low-density residential land. Lanshan County also requires that, in accordance with planning requirements and relevant regulations, planning adjustments may be carried out based on the land user’s application, and after approval, certain proportions of previously paid land transfer fees and unsold commercial land without pre-sale permits may be adjusted to residential land, and the ratio of residential and commercial land may be adjusted.
Guizhou Qiannan: Support the withdrawal of public housing funds for property fees, with a maximum not exceeding 3000 yuan/year/household.
The Guizhou Qiannan Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice on timely adjusting and optimizing housing provident fund policies, continuing to implement and optimize the "withdraw and loan" policy. Within the administrative area of Qiannan, depositors' families purchasing their first and second self-occupied homes can first withdraw their own and their spouse's housing provident fund to pay for the house purchase. If the amount is insufficient, they can then apply for a personal housing loan from the housing provident fund management center, with the total amount of withdrawal and loan not exceeding the total price of the purchased house. Support for the withdrawal of housing provident funds for property service fees is also provided. Depositors paying for property service fees for their self-occupied housing within the Qiannan administrative area can withdraw once a year on a reimbursement basis. Depositors and their spouses are limited to withdrawing for the property service fees of the same self-occupied housing, with the total amount not exceeding the property service fees paid for that self-occupied housing in one year, and a maximum of 3000 yuan/year/household.
Harbin's new housing provident fund policy: Optimizes the identification of housing units, extends loan age, increases loan limits for multi-child families.
According to the official WeChat account of the "Harbin Housing Provident Fund", the Harbin Housing Provident Fund Management Center has launched a new policy to support the healthy development of the real estate market, involving the optimization of housing unit identification standards, extending the age for provident fund loans, and raising loan limits in multiple areas. For unit identification standards, the new policy specifies that families borrowing in the main urban area of Harbin (Daoli District, Nangang District, Daowai District, Xiangfang District, Pingfang District, and Songbei District) will have their units identified based on the main urban area; those buying in other districts and counties of Harbin will have their units identified based on the respective district or county. Meanwhile, the new policy stipulates extending the age limit for provident fund loans, allowing borrowers to apply for loans up to five years after the statutory retirement age, with a maximum loan term of 30 years. Additionally, the new policy proposes to raise the upper limit for housing provident fund loans for families with multiple children, with a maximum loan limit increase of 30%, meaning that individuals applying for provident fund loans can borrow up to 1.04 million yuan, and couples can borrow up to 1.3 million yuan.
Hong Kong Property: In October, there were 304 registrations of residential properties valued over HKD 10 million in Hong Kong.
On November 21, Hong Kong Property data showed that the number of registrations of second-hand residential properties in Hong Kong exceeded 304, valued over HKD 10 million in October, an increase of over 50% compared to last month. Wang Pindi, Director of the Research Department at Hong Kong Property, pointed out that this data mainly reflects the market situation in October. The registration volume in Kowloon increased the most, reaching 91, a growth of 75%; New Territories 106 registrations, an increase of 63.1%; Hong Kong Island 107 registrations, an increase of 33.8%. It is expected that the total registration volume in November may reach 450, setting a new high in six months.
DBS: Rate cuts benefits offset by high inventory, expected Hong Kong property prices may remain flat until 2026.
On November 21, Zhou Hongli, Senior Economist at DBS Bank (Hong Kong), published the latest forecast, stating that Hong Kong property prices will remain stable between 2025 and 2026. Zhou analyzed that although the Fed's rate cuts may stimulate market transactions, the inventory of the Hong Kong property market is at a 20-year high, and it is expected that residential supply will increase by about 14% in the next two years, which will offset the benefits brought by rate cuts. Zhou further explained that developers' pricing strategies are relatively aggressive, and there is uncertainty in the market, and it is expected that property prices will fluctuate next year. He emphasized that the real growth of Hong Kong's property market depends on the enhancement of overall economic growth momentum, a process that may take 1 to 2 years.
Hunan Lanshan has launched a subsidy policy for housing transaction tax to ease the burden of home purchases for families with multiple children.
On November 22, the People's Government of Lanshan County in Yongzhou City, Hunan Province, released several measures to further promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, officially implementing a housing transaction tax subsidy policy. The subsidy policy mainly targets families purchasing newly built commercial housing within the policy's validity period. Among them, families with two or more children will enjoy different proportions of tax subsidies, with a maximum of up to 100%. This initiative will effectively alleviate the burden of home purchases for families with multiple children and promote the implementation of fertility policies. At the same time, the children of homebuyers will also qualify to enroll in public schools in the urban area where the property is located. If there are insufficient school places, the Education Bureau will coordinate to ensure education fairness and reasonable allocation of resources. This policy will help resolve the enrollment issues for the children of homebuyers and optimize the distribution of educational resources. The housing transaction tax subsidy policy introduced by Lanshan County is one of the seven measures to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in Yongzhou City, Hunan Province. Previously, Chenzhou City also introduced measures such as a 50% housing transaction tax subsidy and 12 other measures to stabilize the real estate market.
Freddie Mac: The U.S. 30-year mortgage rate rises to 6.84%, the highest level since July.
On November 22, according to the latest data released by Freddie Mac, the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.84%, the highest level since July 11, 2024, an increase of 0.06 percentage points from the previous week's 6.78%.
Article forwarded from: Jin Ten Data.