European futures prices have been rising strongly recently, with the European container shipping line 2502 contract hitting a three-month high, rising to 3471.8 points. As of 10:15 in the morning of November 20, it rose by 4.48% and was quoted at 3393.7 points.

Shipping Market Watcher - Market Quotes

News

In terms of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, according to Deutsche Presse-Agentur, US Middle East mediator Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut on Tuesday, hoping to finally reach a ceasefire agreement to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hochstein said after negotiations with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri: "There is an opportunity to reach a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, and we will continue to fill the gaps in the agreement. I hope to make a decisive decision in the next few days." The news shows that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may be eased.

Regarding the geopolitical aspects of the Middle East, Huatai Futures analysis stated that after Trump's election, if he vigorously promotes Middle East peace talks in 2025 and reaches a relevant peace agreement, it may bring hope for container ships to return to the Suez Canal again, because the capacity absorbed by the detour will be released again, which will put certain pressure on the long-term freight rates on the Asia-Europe routes.

We can continue to pay attention to the changes in geopolitical conflicts through the shipping monitoring tool-major events function (try it now).

Shipping Market Watcher - Big Events

Fundamentals

According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on November 18, the SCFIS index was 2771.70 points, up 9.7% from the previous month. On November 15, the SCFI index was 2251.90 points, down 79.68 points. The data showed that the European route freight rate index continued to rise, indicating that the spot price of container shipping on the European route may be strong in the near future.

Shanghai Shipping Exchange-SCFIS Index

Shanghai Shipping Exchange-SCFI Index

According to Yide Futures, the near-month contracts are more about the basis convergence logic formed by the expectation of the shippers for the increase in freight rates in December and the actual implementation of the price increase. The far-month contracts are more about the expected impact of geopolitical and tariff policies on the shipping market. On the one hand, before the tension in the Middle East eases, the bottom support logic of the shipping alliance's continued detours for freight rates still exists. On the other hand, after Trump took office, geopolitical conflicts are expected to ease, which puts pressure on the valuation of far-month contracts. According to the latest spot market feedback, the current large container booking is around US$3,700-3,800. The freight forwarder's quotation for December will increase by US$2,000, which is lower than the current increase announced by the shippers. The implementation situation still needs further observation. Considering that there is a wave of concentrated shipments expected in early December (before Christmas and New Year), it will provide certain support for freight rates. In late December, due to holiday factors, it is expected that the demand for shipping will decrease and freight rates will fall accordingly.

Through the shipping market monitoring tool - Platts main route container freight rate, Drewry container freight rate and FBX container freight rate (click the link to experience), we found that although the spot freight rate of container shipping Europe has rebounded recently, the rebound has slowed down and there are signs of leveling off. This shows that the previous November increase by shipping companies may have a positive impact on spot freight rates, but the implementation of the December increase is still unclear. We can pay attention to the changes in the spot freight rates of Europe in the future.

Shipping market monitoring tool-Platts main shipping routes freight rate

Shipping tracking tool-Drewry freight rate

Shipping monitoring tool-FBX freight rate

In addition, through the shipping monitoring tool - real-time order flow (experience now), we found that two bullish accumulation bands were formed in yesterday's midday and today's morning respectively. The price rebounded after falling back to the inside of the bullish accumulation band, and the subsequent price maintained above the accumulation band. At present, these two accumulation bands are still in effect, and we can continue to pay attention to the test of the price rebounding to the bullish accumulation band.

Shipping Monitoring Tool - Real-time Order Flow

Institutional Views

Shenyin Wanguo Futures: On November 19, OOCL and HMM started to raise their December freight rates, with large containers at US$6,100 and US$5,906 respectively. At the same time, Maersk's online large container quotation in the 48th week has risen from US$3,700 after the second reduction to US$4,020, which to a certain extent has enhanced the market's confidence in the implementation of the December price increase. Currently, with the gradual implementation of freight rates in mid-to-late November, many shipping companies have lowered their quotations in mid-to-late November, and announced price increases and discounts. The weak reality has increased the impact on the market valuation, which also makes the subsequent December price increase substantive implementation doubtful. At present, we are still in the period of the announcement of the December price increase letter and have not yet entered the verification period. In addition, there is uncertainty about the degree of demand rebound caused by the rush to transport before the Spring Festival. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term.

Green Dahua Futures: The fundamentals of container shipping have not changed much recently. From late November to early December, the price of large containers was between 4,000 and 5,500 US dollars. However, there were inconsistencies in the freight rates in early December, and some airlines continued to announce price increases. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

Huatai Futures: Shanghai-Ouji Port added 3 empty flights in December, Ningbo-Ouji Port added 5 empty flights in December, and pay attention to whether there will be new empty flights announced in the future to support the price increase in December. The quotation for the second half of November is relatively weak, and pay attention to the implementation of the price increase letter in December. The 02 contract needs to pay attention to whether the shipping company will still issue a price increase letter in the second half of December and January. In general, under the expected support, the near-month contract (2502) is still relatively strong in the short term, waiting for the price increase letter and the final quotation to be implemented.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data