Winter is always accompanied by huge greed. And as the market grows, closer to spring the market cools down and fades away. And it will be the same now, winter will give us 2-3x and then we will go down. This is what ordinary or inexperienced people think.
At the moment, judging exclusively from my studies and market monitoring, we are at the late stage of 2019. Yes, yes, it may be necessary to sit in a drawdown or in a small profit for the whole of 2025. Well, this is investing, who said it would be easy? 😏
What scenario is in store for the market? Honestly, who the hell knows, and no one can guess it accurately.
I can say one thing, very few people will live to see a real bull market and a crazy alt season. Simply put, the market needs to repeat the spring of 2024, and then 70-80% will exit at break-even. And the rest will jump out with a small rise.
The scenario I see sounds as follows: To make people believe in regular rises and falls, where the maximum one can take from the market is 2x. And even then, this 2x will have to be waited for a year. Everyone who did not exit the market in spring with a small profit will jump out this winter. And that is wonderful. I then expect a similar dump in the market, which will make the crowd scream that they were right and that big money cannot be made here. During the next dump, many people will wonder if the game is worth the candle.
Well, after all this, a real growth will be launched, with small pullbacks. People have already been conditioned to expect the market to fall after a small rise. But at one fine moment, these falls and negativity will stop, after which the market will only rise. But people will stubbornly deny this until the market shows new all-time highs. Already there, at the peaks, people will start to believe that now for sure, the market is flying and there will be no more falls.
Eureka, we are buying in full, because the market will no longer fall, only up, only to the moon. Euphoria and clouded minds. At that stage of the market, a large player will start unloading their positions. And after 6-8 months of a large bull market, some negativity will be launched in the world and again a crash down. With a bunch of trapped hamsters.
The end of the movie.