Historically, the fourth quarter is generally better. Asset management giant BlackRock continued to increase its holdings of the seven largest U.S. technology companies in the third quarter, reporting a market value of $4.76 trillion, compared to $4.42 trillion the previous time. Berkshire Hathaway's total holdings fell from $280 billion to $266 billion. Nvidia will announce its third-quarter results after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday, and analysts expect the artificial intelligence chip leader to see a significant increase in revenue.
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JPMorgan analysts outlined six key regulatory and market changes in the crypto industry under the Trump administration, which may reshape the US cryptocurrency landscape under the Trump administration and its Congress. Several stalled cryptocurrency bills may be quickly approved, including the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act (FIT21), which may provide much-needed regulatory clarity for the crypto industry by clarifying the regulatory responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The SEC's (Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121) (SAB 121) that restricts banks from holding digital assets may be repealed. Clearer regulation may increase venture capital, mergers and acquisitions, and initial public offerings in the cryptocurrency sector, and strategic BTC reserves may push up BTC prices, but the likelihood of its passage is low. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to push a bill when the new Congress takes office next year that requires the United States to purchase 1 million BTC, aiming to fill Trump's proposed strategic BTC inventory without increasing the government deficit, that is, selling some of the Fed's gold. At current market prices, the acquisition will cost about $90 billion, but if the bill is passed, the amount required for the acquisition may increase. Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, announced that it will issue ordinary bonds totaling 1.75 billion yen to purchase BTC. The company currently holds 1,018.17 BTC. Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, initiated a vote on the X platform, "Will BTC break through $100,000 on New Year's Eve?" Currently, 58,608 users voted, with an approval rate of 85.2%.
As of November 15, the major listed mining companies' BTC holdings were approximately 54,000 BTC, with MARA holding 27,562 BTC and Riot Platforms holding 10,928 BTC. Decrypt reported that on November 17, CB jumped from the 26th position on election day to the 1st position in the free finance category of the Apple iOS App Store in the United States. Robinhood and Cryptocom also rose to the top 10 in the same category. CryptoQuant analyst MAC.D stated that in just 10 months, the U.S. BTC spot ETF holdings increased from 629,900 BTC to 1,054,500 BTC, accounting for 5.33% of the total supply. There is a strong correlation between the increase in spot ETF holdings and prices. If the U.S. treats BTC as a reserve asset in the future, the amount flowing into spot ETFs may further increase. Christian Catalini, founder of the MIT Crypto Economics Lab, stated that although there is some false advertising in the market, the U.S. is not on the brink of a debt crisis. From a broader perspective, the entire world has accumulated debt. While this does not mean that over-indebtedness is a good thing, if Powell is removed in January, it will undermine the credibility of the Federal Reserve, weaken the dollar, and raise doubts about the market's ability to maintain debt capacity. If BTC really becomes a strategic reserve asset in the future, it may signal "the end of the Federal Reserve's leadership position in global monetary policy." Last week, the net inflow into spot BTC ETFs was $1.644 billion, with a trading volume of $29 billion, marking the third-largest weekly trading volume in history. The net inflow into ETH spot ETFs last week was $515 million, reaching a historic high, with a cumulative net inflow of $178 million. Over the past 7 days, the cumulative net outflow from CEX was 14,168.46 BTC.
Last week, BTC rose to $93,000, with some old mainstream coins significantly increasing in value. SOL reached $240, XRP returned above $1 for the first time in 1,086 days, and DOGE, ADA, LTC, and others all rose, with altcoins showing some strength. U.S. stock-listed company MicroStrategy bought an additional 51,780 BTC for $4.6 billion from November 11 to 17, with an average price of $88,627. As of now, the company holds 331,200 BTC. Bloomberg reported that MicroStrategy's BTC reserves are approximately $26 billion, and it plans to raise $42 billion to invest in BTC over the next three years. QCP Capital believes that BTC's potential strength represents a systemic shift in the market in anticipation of Trump's return to the White House, with a target price of $100,000 to $120,000 not being far off. The idea of Trump initiating a strategic BTC reserve and rotating from gold to BTC provides a strong bullish outlook that could support BTC prices. CryptoQuant CEO KiYoung Ju stated that we are in a bull market, and based on the accumulated capital flowing into the market, the current upside limit for BTC seems to be $135,000. The SEC's 13F filings show that asset management giant BlackRock continued to increase its holdings in the seven tech giants in the third quarter, including an increase of 43.4 million shares in Apple, 7.5 million shares in Microsoft, and 12.35 million shares in Nvidia, as well as an increase of 2.59 million shares in Berkshire Hathaway. BlackRock reported a total holding value of $4.76 trillion, up from $4.42 trillion last time. After last week's CPI and PPI inflation indicators slightly exceeded expectations, Powell stated that the economy has not signaled "any urgency" for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, allowing members to pursue further adjustments "cautiously."
Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: As long as inflation continues to move towards the 2% target, interest rates will be much lower than now within the next 12 to 18 months, and we should continue to consider interest rate cuts based on the September dot plot (which indicated a rate cut in December), slowing down as we approach the neutral rate. Federal Reserve's Collins: A rate cut in December is clearly under consideration, but does not see an urgent necessity to cut rates. The Federal Reserve has shown a hawkish stance, with traders reducing the probability of a December rate cut to 61.9%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 38.1%. Morgan Stanley economists predict that by mid-2025, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds will fall to 3.75%, with a slight rise above 3.50% by the end of next year. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 75 basis points (to 3.5%-3.75%) in the first half of 2025. Currently, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds is 4.4%, and a decline to 3.5% would encourage capital to flow out of so-called safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, aligning with the bullish outlook for the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Historically, the fourth quarter tends to perform well, especially during bull markets, with Bitcoin holding high and various altcoins beginning to recover. The sentiment has turned positive in recent days, with the market reconsidering which options to choose/buy to avoid missing out on bullish opportunities, gradually resembling the familiar atmosphere of 2021. On-chain has been warming up for some time, with many seeking various opportunities in lesser-known coins, experiencing significant fluctuations, so caution regarding risks and safety is advised. In the context of the bullish outlook with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, declining Treasury yields, and rising stock markets, the end of this year and next year is a traditional bull market. Although the duration may be long, do not wait until the second half of 2025 to recognize the bull market, to avoid becoming a late buyer, as various skills will be needed in the early stages to achieve financial freedom.
