Bitcoin hits new high. NVIDIA will announce its third quarter financial report after the US stock market closes on Wednesday. As the largest publicly traded company by market capitalization in the world, its impact on the US stock market may surpass that of US employment data, inflation data, and even Federal Reserve meetings.
Returning to the topic:
Trump plans to meet with former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan of Apollo Global Management on Wednesday regarding the Treasury Secretary candidate. Coindesk reports that Trump's transition team is considering listing Teresa Goody Guillen, a partner at the law firm BakerHostetler and head of blockchain business, as one of the candidates for the next director of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) has launched the second phase of the Drex Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot, focusing on building trade financing solutions using oracle and blockchain technology, with collaboration involving Microsoft, Chainlink, and Banco Inter. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated that options trading for Bitwise's BTC spot ETF BITB will begin tomorrow. Grayscale officially stated that options trading for its GBTC and mini BTC spot ETFs will begin tomorrow. CoinDesk reports that the listed mining company MARA Holdings (MARA) has increased its previously announced convertible preferred stock issuance from $700 million to $850 million, part of which will be used for BTC acquisitions, asset expansion, and general corporate purposes. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that ETH/BTC NUPL has reached a four-year low. Although ETH has underperformed compared to BTC, ETH holders are incurring losses without realizing it, similar to the lows seen in early 2020.
NUPL measures market sentiment and is an indicator of cryptocurrency holders' unrealized profits versus unrealized losses, reflecting the overall state of the market by calculating the net value of unrealized profits and losses of all held assets in the market. Matrixport reports that compared to the bull markets of 2020/2021, the current actual volatility of BTC is relatively low. This may be due to the rise of alternative assets with high volatility (such as meme coins), or institutional investors gradually replacing more volatile retail traders as the dominant force in the market. The official launch of BTC spot ETF options provides a new window for observing market dynamics. The addition of an active options market is another important milestone for BTC's financialization, expected to enhance market liquidity and attract more participation from professional investors. The Shanghai High People's Court published an article stating that the Shanghai Songjiang District People's Court has concluded a dispute case regarding the validity of a virtual currency issuance financing service contract. The court ruled that token issuance financing is an illegal public financing activity, and the case involved (blockchain incubation agreement) is invalid. The article pointed out that virtual currencies, as virtual goods, have property value and are not prohibited by law. Although Chinese law does not explicitly regulate virtual currencies, regulations issued by the People's Bank of China and other departments govern activities related to virtual currencies. Therefore, while merely holding virtual currencies is not illegal, commercial entities cannot participate in virtual currency investment transactions at will or issue tokens on their own. Once their trading activities touch the bottom line of civil and criminal legal principles and rules, they risk suffering losses or even criminal liability.
On November 19, the net inflow of the US BTC spot ETF was $816.4 million, of which BlackRock's IBIT had a net inflow of $213.5 million, and Fidelity's FBTC had a net inflow of $256.1 million; ARK's BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $267 million, setting a historical record for this ETF. The US ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of $81.3 million. On November 20, Tether added $1 billion in stablecoins. BTC spot ETF options have been approved for listing in the US. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart released data stating that on the first day of BlackRock's IBIT options listing, 354,000 contracts were traded, with a nominal exposure of nearly $1.9 billion, of which 82% were call options (289,000 contracts), and 18% were put options (65,000 contracts), a ratio of 4.4:1. This first-day data is one of the reasons for Bitcoin's new historical high. QCP Capital's research report states that Nasdaq will start listing BlackRock's BTC spot ETF options today, marking a significant milestone for the BTC derivatives market, as derivatives of traditional assets often grow to 10-20 times the market capitalization of the underlying market. Goldman Sachs also plans to divest its digital asset platform, further highlighting the increasing integration of cryptocurrency and traditional finance, which can provide the necessary foundation for BTC to rise. On November 20, MicroStrategy's market capitalization exceeded $100 billion, currently at $111.39 billion, with intraday stock price rising 14.64% to $495, setting a historical high, ranking among the top 100 US publicly traded companies. The third quarter 13F report shows that MicroStrategy's institutional holders surged from 667 to 738, with Vanguard increasing its holdings by nearly 16 million shares, a growth of 1000%.
Société Générale states: The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 80 basis points by December next year, and the European Central Bank to cut rates by 140 basis points. The market reflects that 'the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts is too few, while the number of European Central Bank rate cuts is too many.' The dollar is expected to peak around the end of this year. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok suggests that as the Federal Reserve continuously lowers interest rates, the inflow momentum into money market funds may reverse, and the Fed's rate cuts could prompt $2 trillion to flow out of money market funds into high-yield assets (last week, the total assets of US money market funds first expanded to $7 trillion). Goldman Sachs states that due to the Federal Reserve's easing policy and strong economic support creating a favorable environment for risk in the late cycle, investors should still favor stocks over bonds. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the listing of BTC spot ETF options. The market expects that BTC ETF options will likely increase financial institutions' exposure to BTC, providing momentum for the bull market. Bitcoin has risen to a new high of $94,800, while traditional market futures prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have reached $95,460. Altcoins are still being drained by Bitcoin. In the same bull market, the happiness of coins does not connect between coins. (The difference between Bitcoin and altcoins: a $10 Bitcoin, a $10 altcoin; if Bitcoin doubles, it's $20, if altcoin halves, it's $5, the difference is obvious; if Bitcoin triples, it's $30, if altcoin drops three times, it's $3.3, the difference is obvious.) When anxious, look back at history: in 2020, Bitcoin's increase was about 8 times, while other coins lagged. In 2021, Bitcoin's increase was about 1 time, and altcoins began to be active. In 2024, Bitcoin's increase is expected to exceed 1 time, while altcoins nearly show no performance. In 2025, Bitcoin's increase rate is expected to be lower than in 2024, and based on cycle performance, other coins may catch up on their increase. Looking back at history, other coins' performance always lags behind Bitcoin, and in the year after the halving, latecomers surpass. I hope this time the cycle history remains the same.
