LTHs today do not see $90K as an enemy; there is profit-taking. Some of these investors have been here for many years, and for them, this first target would be a profit-taking zone.
The MVRV Ratio represents the average profit multiple of each Bitcoin, at the moment it is being traded at 2.5 which means on a percentage basis around 150% in profit on paper, comparing the extreme levels of 3 and 4 are considered as tops is still found in balance and ready to continue until $100K.
On the other hand, the supply of LTH is slightly decreasing, through the LTH Accumulation/Distribution Supplu 30D-Change, a superficial reduction in the supply in profit is noticeable, representing a decrease in your balances of 3%/month and which has become easily recovered in an overheated market like Spot and ETFs with trading volumes of $7.5 billion/day. This influx of ETFs is absorbing all the coins that are being sold.
Looking at LTH we can separate it into two main categories to understand the psychology and direction of these investors:
1- LTH with purchases from 6 months to 1 year, these are mainly recent traders and investors, these are also those who sell in panic and capitulate in bear markets.
2- LTH is treated as smart money. They are investors with high convictions regarding the future, and they sell near market tops.
Through Realized Price UTXO Bands we see that long-term holders are not looking at $90K, Bitcoin has to reach higher levels and prices to realize profits of more than 10x. LTH 2 which is more than a year old readjusted its positions in March and therefore this area is not critical.
The movements have been coming from LTH 1 who have made recent purchases and for them, $90K will be the best exit door.
Written by Percival
