Mini Program: Daily summary of investment bank/institutional views

foreign

1. Commerzbank: Musk's government appointment will have disastrous consequences for the economy

Trump will appoint Musk (along with Ramaswamy) to lead the new Office of Government Efficiency. Musk announced during his campaign that he would cut US federal government spending by $2 trillion (nearly a third). Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank, noted that this would have disastrous consequences for the US economy: "Musk does not believe in a gradual and cautious approach. I don't believe he can take a sensible step. Some would say that their suggestions will only be suggestions, and there are still the president and Congress in front of them when it comes to actual implementation. But if the suggestions will not be implemented, then why set up such an agency? The president will appear indecisive, which is exactly what Trump does not want. The argument of using an aggressive tightening plan to create a positive dollar is very smart. After all, it will greatly reduce the capital needs of the US Treasury and thus the capital needs of the entire economy. US Treasury bonds will become scarce and expensive again. However, I think the dollar may prevail in the early stages due to the inevitable expansionary monetary policy response."

2. ING: The US dollar may experience a mild correction, but it is unlikely to fall below 106

ING said the dollar could correct downward, but any pullback would be mild and short-lived. Francesco Pesole, an analyst at ING, said in a report that the dollar could see a pullback given the excessive long dollar positions betting on dollar appreciation. He said that if the U.S. PPI data released tonight is lower than expected, it could be a catalyst for a dollar pullback. He said that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at 4 a.m. Beijing time the next day could also weaken the dollar if he avoids linking Trump's potential inflationary policies to the Fed's decisions. However, the dollar index is unlikely to fall below 106, and any decline is likely to attract buyers.

3. Deutsche Bank: The US dollar remains the preferred safe-haven currency, and trade war expectations may increase demand

George Saravelos, head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, wrote that the dollar remains the "preferred safe-haven currency" and is likely to maintain that status. Saravelos said the expected trade war under the new Trump administration could add support for the dollar because "the greater the risk of a government being sanctioned by the United States, the greater the net demand for the dollar." He also said that gold's weakness since the election shows that the market is not worried about a dollar crisis.

4. Capital Economics: Ukraine ceasefire may ease Russian economic pressure and promote interest rate cuts

A ceasefire with Ukraine would cool Russia's economy, which has been largely shielded from Western sanctions, but a surge in military spending has fueled rapid price increases and forced the Russian central bank to sharply raise interest rates, Capital Economics economists wrote in a note. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has a less hostile approach to Russia than many politicians and has pledged to help end the conflict with Ukraine. A ceasefire would allow Russia to cut military spending, which, while likely to weigh on growth, would cool the economy and allow rate setters to start easing policy, Capital Economics said.

domestic

1. CITIC Securities: The overall CPI growth rate in the United States may be around 2.6% next year

According to a research report by CITIC Securities, the growth rate of the US CPI in October was fully in line with expectations, with most of the sub-item readings being in the middle of the pack, commodity prices being stable, and service inflation remaining sticky, which increased the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December this year. After Trump's victory, the outlook for commodity inflation in the United States is a concern worthy of attention. We expect that the overall CPI in the remaining two months of the year will hardly decline significantly compared with the same period last year. After considering the gradual impact of Trump's planned tariff increase and deportation of immigrants, the overall CPI growth rate in the United States next year may be around 2.6% year-on-year.

2. CITIC Securities: Hong Kong stocks may see an upward trend after the short-term shock ends

According to a research report by CITIC Securities, Hong Kong stocks have been in a continuous correction since October 8, and the Hang Seng Index has lost more than two-thirds of its gains from September 25 to October 7. During the correction period, there are both positive and negative factors, so the current correction of Hong Kong stocks should be sufficient. With the recent decline of Hong Kong stocks and the divergence of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks and the AH premium have once again demonstrated high cost-effectiveness. After the short-term shock is over, Hong Kong stocks may usher in a rising market. Now is the time to invest in Hong Kong stocks with high cost-effectiveness, and the science and technology sector is the most recommended.

3. CITIC Securities: Looking ahead to 2025, the main line of investment in the technology industry will continue to revolve around AI

CITIC Securities Research Report stated that looking forward to 2025, we believe that the main investment line of the technology industry will continue to revolve around AI. With the continuous improvement of large model capabilities in multimodality, logical reasoning, etc., AI is expected to be deeply integrated with the digital transformation of thousands of industries, from computing power infrastructure to terminal application landing, and continue to drive technology industry investment. We recommend paying attention to investment opportunities in three directions: AI computing power, applications and data, and AI terminals. And with the warming of the macroeconomic environment and the gradual implementation of industrial policies, we also recommend paying attention to investment opportunities in the Internet, Android consumer electronics, automotive industry chain, semiconductors, operators and other subdivided technology sectors under the background of demand recovery.

4. CITIC Securities: The stability of the real estate industry is conducive to the recovery of demand in the cement and glass industries

CITIC Securities said that with the recent policy combination launched by multiple departments to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, the stability of the real estate industry is also conducive to the recovery of demand in the cement and glass industries. On the cement supply side, the progress of cement inclusion in the national carbon trading market has accelerated, and the introduction of the new version of the capacity replacement policy is expected to accelerate the clearance of 300 million tons of backward cement clinker production capacity, and the overproduction phenomenon will be effectively controlled, and the actual production capacity will be reduced from 2.1 billion tons to within 1.8 billion tons of the designed capacity. On the glass supply side, under the pressure of industry losses, the cold repair capacity has increased, the inventory of enterprises has dropped rapidly, and the price of glass has been restored.

5. China Galaxy Securities: With the continued impact of policies, the overall real estate industry is expected to achieve an increase in valuation

China Galaxy Securities said that the Ministry of Finance and other departments have introduced tax support policies for housing transactions, providing support from both the demand and supply sides. This policy may further support the demand for improved housing. The reduction in the transaction cost of second-hand houses is expected to drive the transaction of existing houses and support the transaction of new houses. With the continued effect of the policy, the industry as a whole is expected to achieve an increase in valuation. The leading real estate companies have demonstrated excellent operational management capabilities and have financial advantages, and their market share is expected to further increase.

6. Soochow Securities: The real estate industry has reached a policy turning point, and we should pay attention to investment opportunities in the sector

Dongwu Securities Research Report believes that the first mention of "stop falling and stabilize" at the Political Bureau meeting in September indicates that the real estate industry has ushered in an important policy turning point, and the government has fully realized the important supporting role of stabilizing real estate for the macro-economy. After the Political Bureau meeting, first-tier cities accelerated the introduction of industry relaxation policies such as optimizing purchase restrictions, and important meetings of multiple ministries and commissions also repeatedly mentioned the policy optimization directions such as real estate tax system reform and special bond storage, conveying the government's determination to promote the stabilization of real estate at this stage. The current real estate market has undergone sufficient adjustments. Stabilizing the real estate market does not mean standing on the opposite side of new quality productivity. The cyclical law is supplemented by policy determination. The industry's goal of stabilizing is worth looking forward to, suggesting that attention should be paid to investment opportunities in the sector.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data