Valuation Indicator Method

• Price-to-earnings ratio (PE): The PE ratio is the ratio of the stock price to earnings per share. Taking the stock market as an example, when the PE ratio of the entire market or a single stock is at a historically low level, it may mean that the market is at a low point. The reasonable range of PE ratios in different industries varies. Generally speaking, the PE ratios of traditional industries are relatively low, such as the utilities industry, where the PE ratio is often around 10-20 times; while emerging industries, such as the technology industry, may have higher PE ratios, but if their PE ratios are significantly lower than their historical averages, it may also be a signal of a low point.

• Price-to-book ratio (PB): The price-to-book ratio refers to the ratio of stock price to net asset value per share. If the market or individual stock's price-to-book ratio is low, lower than the historical average, especially when the price-to-book ratio is close to 1 or less than 1 (for some companies with good asset quality), it may mean that the market is at a low level. For example, for bank stocks, when the price-to-book ratio is low, it may imply that its valuation is low, which is a reference signal that the market is at a low level.

Technical analysis methods

• Moving average: In a price chart, a long-term moving average (such as the 200-day moving average) can be used as a reference. When the price is below the long-term moving average and far away from it, it may indicate that the market is at a relatively low level. For example, in the stock market, if the stock price is below the 200-day moving average for a long time and the distance from the moving average gradually increases, it is possible that the market is at a relatively pessimistic low state.

• Trading volume analysis: Market lows are usually accompanied by shrinking trading volume. This is because at low levels, investor sentiment is low and trading activity decreases. If the market continues to fall, the trading volume gradually decreases, and when the trading volume reaches an extremely low level and stops falling, this may be a signal that the market is about to bottom out.

Market Sentiment Indicators

• Investor Confidence Index: Some institutions regularly publish investor confidence indexes. When the index is at a historical low, it reflects that investors are more pessimistic about the market, which may indicate that the market is at a low point. For example, during periods when expectations of a recession are strong, the investor confidence index tends to be low, and the market may also be at a low point.

• Fund sales: Observing fund sales data can also reveal market sentiment. When fund sales are cold, new fund issuance is difficult, or even large fund redemptions occur, it means that investors lack confidence in the market and the market may be at a low level. Just like during a bear market, the shares of many funds will shrink significantly, which is a manifestation of low market sentiment.

Macroeconomic Analysis

• Economic cycle indicators: When economic growth indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) slow down or show negative growth, the market may be at a low point. For example, during an economic recession, corporate profits decline, and financial markets such as the stock market tend to weaken accordingly. In addition, rising unemployment rates are also a sign of economic downturn, and the market may be at a low point at this time.

• Interest rate level: Interest rates have a great impact on financial markets. When the central bank lowers interest rates, the cost of funds decreases, which in theory will stimulate the economy and financial markets. If the market continues to perform poorly when interest rates are already very low, it may be that it is at a low level waiting for economic recovery or other positive factors to stimulate a rebound. For example, during the global financial crisis, interest rates in many countries fell sharply and the market was also at a low level. zxc9012536