The market has once again come close to 9w. Combining various data and the bull market cycle, I first make a judgment that the bull market is not over yet and a short-term correction is imminent.
The bull market has not ended, which does not mean that the market will not pull back. It's just that there is no sign of reaching the peak yet. Keep a calm mind and hold on patiently. Do you remember the cup-handle candlestick chart I showed you before? Even after the new high, there are still wave after wave of trends. We are still in the first wave. There will be adjustments later, and there will be new highs again. The bull market process is not achieved overnight, but requires one platform at a time to move upward.
As for the specific points, how it will move forward depends on several factors. The first is the on-chain data, the second is the ratio and strength of long and short positions in the contract, the third is the CME futures gap data, the fourth is market sentiment, and the fifth is the situation of the copycat season.
Let’s talk about the pullback points first. On-chain data shows that the current on-chain Bitcoin supply situation is close to the extreme of short-term risk, which means that the market may experience a large pullback at any position between 9w and 11w. From the perspective of chip dispersion, there are large vacuum periods at 77k-79k and 82k-86k. It is difficult for these positions to have decent support. Therefore, real pullback support is likely to appear below 81k or 77k.
Similarly, the CME futures gap data also shows us this feature. Over the weekend, CME Bitcoin futures gapped upward to form a gap of 77,000-80,000. According to historical data, the probability of being filled in one week is 45%, the probability of being filled in two weeks is 61%, and the probability of being filled in three weeks is 80%. The overall probability of the gap being filled is 94%. Therefore, we should believe that there is a high probability that it will pull back to around 77,000 within the month, which is consistent with the on-chain data.
Looking at the long-short ratio of the contract, more than 5 billion were liquidated when it fell to 72,000, and more than 3 billion were liquidated when it fell to 77,000. Therefore, the final conclusion I gave that the callback position will be in the 7-77,000 range, which should be relatively reasonable. In a bull market, the decline is more rapid, so don't be afraid to get in, and pick up chips bravely.
The current market sentiment is overheated, with the greed index reaching 87, and FOMO sentiment has appeared in the MEME coin sector. From the bull market to now, it can be said that the only main line is MEME. Whether it is Binance’s coin listing orientation or the market’s hype sentiment, they are all in MEME. Therefore, the appearance of FOMO sentiment in MEME also means that the short-term correction will not be too far away, and it is not recommended to gamble with large positions.
The overall situation in the alt season is still good. Currently, Bitcoin's dominance is still close to 60%, and it is even slightly higher than the previous two days. This shows that we are still in the bull market process and chips have not been distributed in large quantities.
Based on the above logics, we can draw a simple conclusion that the market may continue to rise in the short term, but the psychological expectation of the 100,000 integer mark is likely to cause a short-term overheating correction in the market. The correction point will most likely not fall below 70,000. Below 80,000 is the time to gradually pick up chips. The medium- and long-term bull market process has not changed, and the top structure has not yet appeared. The possibility of the end of the bull market is not considered for the time being.
