Today is the second key day of the week after the US elections - the Fed's interest rate decision. So far, according to#CMEGroupdata, there is a complete consensus on the decision in the market:

- 1% - there will be a pause (on October 31 it was 3.9%).

- 99% - there will be a decrease of 0.25 percentage points (on October 31 it was 96.1%).

- 0 - there will be a decrease of 0.5 percentage points.

The probability of a pause at the next meeting on December 18 is higher, currently around 28%.

At the same time, expectations are gradually emerging in the market that with Trump coming to power, the rate cut process may slow down.#Bloombergpublished an article with the headline “Jerome Powell has returned to Trump’s world and is about to feel the heat.” The gist of it is that the Fed will have to assure the markets that it will be able to cope with the consequences of Trump’s actions, having promised a whole series of new tariffs and tax breaks.

Yesterday we also wrote that, in the opinion of #JPMorgan, Trump's victory could push the Fed to pause in lowering rates. But, we will add, this will most likely happen after he officially takes office.

Besides the Fed, today is traditionally - data on unemployment benefits in the US. Although they have not brought any noticeable volatility in recent weeks, it is worth keeping an eye on. In general, the calendar for the rest of the day:

- 14:00 Kyiv time / 15:00 Moscow time / 17:00 Astana time - Bank of England interest rate decision, Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes. The British pound is included in the DXY calculation formula.

❗️- 15:30 Kyiv time / 16:30 Moscow time / 18:30 Astana time - Weekly number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US. The labor market is important for the US Federal Reserve's actions on the interest rate.

- 15:30 Kyiv time / 16:30 Moscow time / 18:30 Astana time - US non-farm productivity for Q3. Important for recession risks.

- 16:15 Kyiv time / 17:15 Moscow time / 19:15 Astana time and 17:15 Kyiv time / 18:15 Moscow time / 20:15 Astana time - Speech by the head of the Bank of England Bailey.

❗️- 21:00 Kyiv time / 22:00 Moscow time / 00:00 new day Astana time - US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. At the beginning of the week, the item was scheduled an hour earlier, but either this was a mistake or a postponement. There were no such pauses between the rate announcement and Powell's speech before. So it was most likely a mistake.

❗️- 21:00 Kyiv time / 22:00 Moscow time / 00:00 new day Astana time - Economic forecasts and statement of the US Federal Reserve.

❗️- 21:30 Kyiv time / 22:30 Moscow time / 00:30 new day Astana time - Press conference of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

The US Federal Reserve balance sheet data is due at midnight. But we are unlikely to see any surprises there - quantitative tightening continues.