As of the time of writing, the market shows that BTC has broken a new high, surpassing $75,000, currently reported at $74,213.84, with a 24-hour increase of 8.91%, indicating significant market fluctuations.
Decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket shows that former President Trump’s probability of winning the 2024 U.S. election has risen to 61.8%. It is reported that Polymarket reflects market expectations for various events through user betting. Unlike traditional polls, such platforms focus more on the flow of funds and changes in market sentiment, having attracted over $3 billion in real money support, making them an effective reference for analyzing the political landscape, while also being more persuasive. Currently, Trump's election odds are 1.57, while Harris's are 2.5. These odds data reflect the global market's confidence in the two candidates' chances of winning and suggest that Trump is likely to be elected!
Trump's election as U.S. President will have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market. With Trump likely to be elected, as he has promised to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve for the country, the net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs has reached $2.3 billion in the past week, indicating market optimism about Trump’s election and Bitcoin. His victory would provide a great boost and strong positive news for Bitcoin! Several senior market analysts have stated that the best opportunity to enter the market is when the election results are uncertain! Market volatility is increasing, and investment must remain rational.
The state of cryptocurrencies: November 2020 vs. November 2024
I have little fondness for presidential elections, one reason being that it gives you a chance to reflect on what has happened in the past four years.
Has the situation improved or worsened compared to the last vote in 2020?
When you do this in the cryptocurrency space, the results will be overwhelming. Despite the hostile regulatory environment—think of the chokehold actions 2.0, countless SEC lawsuits, and numerous contradictory or ambiguous statements—the progress we have made is astonishing.
Choose any statistics you want, it’s that simple.
Progress in cryptocurrencies: 2020 vs. 2024
Will these trends continue?
When you see the statistics above, you should ask yourself one question: Will this trend continue? In my view, the answer is yes.
Our view is that no matter who wins on November 5:
The inflow of funds into spot crypto ETFs will continue
Stablecoins will continue to grow rapidly
Institutions will continue to 'exit zero interest rates' and increase allocations to cryptocurrencies
Wall Street will continue to embrace tokenization and real-world assets
Blockchain will become faster and cheaper
Real-world applications like Polymarket will continue to make breakthroughs and gain mainstream adoption
There is no doubt: the outcome of the November 5 election is important, especially in the short term. However, in my view, the result of the November 5 election will fall somewhere between a speed bump and a strong wind in the long term.
Neither can stop the train from moving forward.
If Trump is elected, it could influence the crypto market in multiple ways, thereby triggering changes in the crypto market to some extent, as detailed below:
1. Regarding policy tendencies:
• Positive regulatory attitude: Trump has repeatedly expressed support for cryptocurrencies, promising that if elected, he will reform the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to create a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. He also plans to establish a Presidential Advisory Committee on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to design transparent regulatory guidelines for the crypto market. This clear support contrasts with the currently stricter regulatory situation and may enhance the confidence of market participants, attracting more investors into the crypto market and driving up cryptocurrency prices.
• Blocking the development of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC): Trump has clearly expressed opposition to the U.S. government's development of CBDCs, a stance that may refocus some investors who prefer decentralized digital currencies back to cryptocurrencies, increasing demand for them.
2. Regarding the economic environment:
• Expectations for loose monetary policy: Trump supports loose monetary policies, which could lead to a depreciation of the dollar and increased inflationary pressures. In this economic environment, investors may turn to assets like cryptocurrencies to hedge against inflation risks, thereby driving up cryptocurrency prices. Moreover, loose monetary policies usually bring more liquidity, making it easier for money to flow into risk assets, including the crypto market.
• Support for the mining industry: Trump has stated that he wants to make the U.S. a powerhouse in Bitcoin mining, strengthening support and investment in energy and power infrastructure to solidify the U.S. position in Bitcoin mining. This could stimulate an increase in Bitcoin mining activities domestically, raising the supply and market participation of Bitcoin, positively impacting the development of Bitcoin and related cryptocurrencies.
3. In terms of market sentiment and investor expectations:
• Increased market speculation and hype: Trump's election may be viewed by the market as good news for cryptocurrencies, triggering optimistic sentiment and speculative behavior among investors. Some investors may follow the trend and buy cryptocurrencies, pushing prices up. This market sentiment-driven surge could lead to increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market in the short term, with significant price increases.
• Attracting institutional investors' attention: If Trump implements cryptocurrency-friendly policies, it could change some institutional investors' attitudes towards cryptocurrencies. Increased participation from institutional investors will bring more funds and resources to the crypto market, helping to enhance the market position and value of cryptocurrencies.
However, the above is merely speculation based on Trump's statements and policy tendencies, and the actual situation may be influenced by various factors, such as the stability of the political situation, changes in the international economic landscape, and the technological development of cryptocurrencies themselves. Therefore, the impact of Trump's election on the crypto market remains uncertain.
