According to The Block, analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein predict that even if the U.S. election results remain uncertain this week, Bitcoin is still expected to reach a target price of $200,000 by the end of 2025. Analysts noted that the election results would not affect this prediction.
Bitcoin target price of $200,000 by the end of 2025
Republican candidate Trump is seen as a more cryptocurrency-supportive candidate than Vice President Harris, although the Democratic Party's stance on cryptocurrency has softened in recent months, differing from their hardline position over the past four years.
Bernstein analysts pointed out that the main driving factors for Bitcoin include U.S. fiscal instability, record levels of debt, and monetary expansion, all of which have increased demand for hard assets. The success of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has also further driven this trend, with ample room for growth.
"The potential of Bitcoin has already been unleashed, and this process is hard to reverse. Our target price for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 remains $200,000, regardless of the election outcome."
Polymarket odds fluctuation trends
In the Polymarket odds fluctuations over the weekend, analyst Chhugani warned that short-term price volatility may occur depending on who will take over the White House, as election dynamics shift.
According to Selzer's Iowa poll, Harris's support rate increased by 3%, while Trump's lead on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket shrank from 33% on October 30 to about 11%. Currently, Trump's odds on Polymarket are 57.9% to 42.1%, leading over Harris. On the regulated Kalshi platform, Trump's odds are also leading at 54% to 46%, coming close to parity on Sunday. However, national average polls show a tight race, with Harris holding a slight 1% lead, still within the margin of error.
Impact on the cryptocurrency market
Bernstein analysts stated that regardless of who wins, the market has not fully reflected the impact of their victory. They reiterated that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could break its all-time high of $74,000 around the inauguration date of January 20, and rise further to $80,000 to $90,000. However, if Harris wins, Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 before gradually recovering, which is an upward adjustment from the previously predicted range of $30,000 to $40,000.
Bernstein analyst Valentin Fournier stated that the recent market pullback is mainly due to profit-taking and a temporary decrease in spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows. However, Fournier is optimistic about a rebound before the end of the year and expects Bitcoin to potentially reach new highs in the coming weeks.
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