Current Bitcoin price: $68,767.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin tested a low near $67,500 yesterday, and there is a rebound today. It is very likely that it will not break through $71,000 in the coming days, as funds tend to be conservative during such sensitive moments.
The trend of altcoins, viewed over the past six months, shows a half-bull, half-bear pattern, with continuous declines at the beginning of each month and strong rebounds in the middle of the month. However, overall positions are too low, with some even dropping to levels seen during the 2022 bear market, such as DOT.
This trend has never appeared in past bull markets, and Bitcoin is moving further away from altcoins.
Thus, in cryptocurrency, large funds can only trust Bitcoin; other altcoins are only suitable for speculative play.
This is an unavoidable reality.
The current situation can be summed up in two sentences: Bitcoin's bull market and altcoins' bear market.
In the U.S. elections, Trump was leading previously, but since the end of last month, American news suddenly began promoting the possibility of a Harris victory. Under the influence of media coverage, the market's bets on Trump's victory have decreased.
This is quite a peculiar thing; it feels like there are many hidden agendas.
News mostly begins to favor Harris; when did a mere tool start reversing the situation, and how did it happen?
Is it really true that 'people who smile will not have bad luck'?
According to Trump citing data from Brazil's AtlasIntel, which claims to be the 'most accurate' polling agency in the 2020 election, he is leading in all seven key swing states.
It seems that the polls for the U.S. elections resemble a war of public opinion, with both sides fantasizing about their electoral prospects.
Based on performance, influence, eloquence, and enthusiasm for rallying votes... from all aspects, I see no reason for Harris to win.
However, the U.S. elections have never solely relied on 'logic,' but rather on the confrontation of capital, where the stronger and darker backers prevail.
Thus, the U.S. elections have indeed become quite confusing.
Actually, who wins is not important to us; what matters is how it will affect the cryptocurrency market.
There are only two outcomes, just like the market trends: rising or falling, whether it's Trump or Harris.
During Trump's active campaign in recent months, Bitcoin rose from a low of $49,000 to $73,000 a few days ago, and altcoins and memes were also significantly affected by this news, with major price surges every month.
Recently, due to a reversal in events, Bitcoin has slightly corrected, and altcoins and memes have plummeted, which is a normal reaction to the expectation of 'Trump's loss.'
The decline of meme coins can be divided into two segments:
One is the Trump sector; if he loses, this sector will basically fall endlessly. The other is the traditional MEME and SOL sectors; after hitting bottom in the future, there will still be opportunities, with predictions that next year will still be a MEME year, a viewpoint I agree with.
The decline of altcoins will have certain limits. There will still be opportunities for sector rotation. Right now, most veteran players are very disappointed with altcoin trends, including Ethereum, but those who have played for years will find that after extreme disappointment, there is often a reversal.
I personally took some profits in altcoins during a wave of gains in mid to late last month and switched to Bitcoin at the end of the month, which I also shared in previous articles.
Previously, I thought that if there was a short-term trend in cryptocurrency, it would be at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, before the elections and interest rate cuts, which makes logical sense.
Clearly, recently there has only been Bitcoin's market, with no movement in altcoins.
We are prepared for this kind of market.
I previously said that even if I was optimistic about the market at the beginning of this month, I should maintain a relatively conservative approach, buying less, not buying altcoins, and wait to see the situation after the elections and interest rate cuts.
As Bitcoin rises and approaches historical highs, altcoins have continuously performed poorly during the downturn.
It's actually all about digesting the emotions of 'Trump's loss.'
What impact will the ascension of Trump and Harris have on the cryptocurrency market?
1. If it weren't for the recent 'reverse news,' the end of the month and beginning of next month should see a rise, with the elections breaking historical highs in the short term, and altcoins rising together. After a big bullish candle, harvesting would begin.
But after the 'loss news' emerged, the market has already digested it in advance. So if Trump wins, the market should quickly rebound to levels before the decline.
Now, if he wins, it will be a surprise, and the market will quickly revert to previous levels, so the opportunity to enter will be in the next couple of days.
2. 'Harris's victory' is not a major negative.
Firstly, Harris's campaign team has also accepted cryptocurrency donations; it seems XRP donated $20 million. However, Harris has not publicly stated much support for cryptocurrencies, so the market expects Trump to be better for the crypto space.
After the ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum are approved, it actually won't matter who gets elected; the cryptocurrency market has already been integrated into investment.
The market's decline is also a response to 'Harris's victory.' Historically, markets often decline in advance before negative news and tend to rebound within 24-48 hours after the news is announced.
Everyone can look back at past cryptocurrency trends after negative news lands to understand what I'm saying.
So, if there is an opportunity, you should consider positioning in the next couple of days, especially after the recent Bitcoin spike.
In summary, Bitcoin will not be long-term affected by the elections, only by cycles, as interest rate hikes and cuts can have a more enduring influence compared to elections.
Breaking through previous highs is merely a matter of time; if you want to position yourself, look for relatively low points, as absolute lows are completely gone.
In a period of interest rate cuts, Bitcoin should not be priced too low, nor should we expect it to go lower.
As for altcoins, they can only be positioned when Bitcoin is relatively low and near support levels to be safer. In the short term, between $66,000 and $67,000 is a position where you can start to position (because there is a lot of leverage accumulation and many spot buys at this level). If it doesn’t reach this level, then it’s better to wait and see for a period.
People are more worried about whether altcoins will go to zero.
Here's a suggestion: consider investing more in American and Korean projects, primarily American ones. This round of bull market is also being staged by Americans; as long as the bull cycle exists, there will be speculation, while projects from other regions should see reduced investment.
