From a technical perspective: The non-farm data is severely negative for the US economy, the dollar index plummeted, and Bitcoin's price rose to 71600, which is logically reasonable.
Question: The entire network concentrated short selling around 70500 on Friday. The 71600 can wipe out all short position stop-losses, but there was no second short selling point above 71800. The market reached 71600 and quickly reversed downward. After experiencing three rebounds from the support at 68800 over the weekend, it accelerated downward, breaking through the previous daily level W double bottom rebound support position.
Hunter's Thoughts: This point is very deceptive. I have repeatedly mentioned that the market will play around the 68800 position. Simply put, it leads everyone to have endless speculations about this position. Considering the non-farm data being a significant negative for the dollar and favorable for the cryptocurrency market, this wave of decline should be a real drop. Looking at the actual fluctuations from Friday night to the weekend, in favorable conditions, the market indeed rose, clearing out short positions, but it did not provide a second opportunity to short (71800-72000). The continuous retest of 68800 over the weekend and subsequent breakdown accelerates the decline. If the market is to rise afterwards, there is no need to retest 68800; it can rise directly with the favorable non-farm data.
From the news perspective: The decline in the US stock market began on Wednesday when Harris's winning probability surpassed Trump's. The non-farm data has changed its usual fraudulent style, for the first time lowering expectations, with an actual published value of 12,000 jobs, which is unprecedented compared to the past.
Question: Whether it's the US stock market or the non-farm data, there are strange signals. The election results haven't been announced yet, but the US stock market has already started to fall. The non-farm data is a statistical measure from the US Department of Labor, part of the government system, and it has now changed from fraudulent practices to becoming normal.
Hunter's Thoughts: The US stock market began to fall when Harris's winning probability surpassed, does this mean the Democratic Party feels confident about winning? After all, maintaining the prosperity of the US stock market was previously to secure votes. Now, only when they are certain of victory do they not need to continue propping up the stock market (regardless of who comes to power, the issues with the dollar and US debt need to be addressed; if the stock market remains in a bull state, it will lead to a third crisis, so whoever comes to power needs to actively burst this bubble). From another perspective, both parties' financial backers are facing liquidation this round. Has Trump's faction sensed the possibility of defeat and started to flee early?
Secondly, looking at the change in the fraudulent style of illegal data, it seems the US bureaucratic system is entirely at the behest of the Democratic Party. Previously, fraud was needed to maintain a facade of prosperity to prevent the US stock market from crashing. Now that real data has emerged, does this mean the government system also believes that the Democratic Party will maintain power and can start correcting the outrageous data from before? After all, we previously viewed the fantastical lies as merely a means to secure votes. From a human perspective, before the election dust settles, I can do whatever it takes; if I lose, the mess is left for Trump to clean up. But if I win? The mess I created will also be mine to fix.
Having covered two points, let's talk about the current market situation. After the daily head and shoulders pattern broke below 68800, it officially entered the phase of forming the right shoulder's box range, with the top at 68800 and the bottom at 65000. This aligns with what the hunter previously said about needing to create a range of about 3000 points before the election announcement to facilitate market manipulation and provoke emotions.
The drop below 68800 was chosen during the weekend when market trading was light. Who is in a hurry? What are they anxious about? If it is a rise, Friday could have fully utilized the favorable non-farm data to push directly to 61800-62000 under pressure, enticing short positions to enter, and then accelerate upward to break through, initiating a bull market.
The only reasonable explanation is that the subsequent market trend is downward. Only in this way can the logic of this weekend's drop make sense. Breaking below 68800 can initiate the right shoulder's box range oscillation, providing a 3000-point oscillation range for the main force to control the market. Meanwhile, the fundamental reason for the market's bullish sentiment is betting on Trump's rise to power. The election results will be announced on November 5th. Even if Trump comes to power, the rise can still be controlled within this range. If Harris comes to power, a direct waterfall decline or a slow drop is also technically reasonable for this wave of market.
On weekend evenings, there is no need for everyone to focus on the pressure situation at 68800. Whether it breaks or not is not important. If it is a decline, even if there is a spike, it won't matter much; at most, it will just be a forced stop-loss for technical shorts. If the hunter's judgment is wrong and the market is not declining but rising, then a one-sided rise will not provide any pullbacks.
Currently, the position people can choose to short is around 68800, and a breakthrough at 69300 should trigger a stop-loss. If the subsequent market rises unilaterally, then the hunter's judgment is wrong. However, if the spike triggers a stop-loss and the market falls back into the range of 68800-69200, continuing to short again, it indicates that the market is a false break, and the subsequent trend will still be a unilateral decline, which will drop to the area of 66000-65000 before the election announcement. This position can be chosen to reduce positions and withstand the volatility of the election.