🔹Cognitive Society's comment
On November 2, Bitcoin retraced to a low of 69000, aligning with the support level of 68800 mentioned in yesterday's Cognitive Society article.
On November 1, the highest point of Bitcoin rebound was 71700, which aligns with the resistance level of 7200 mentioned in yesterday's Cognitive Society article.
Bitcoin's consolidation is still expected; altcoins are in bloodbath.
Every time before a new US president is elected, risk assets tend to drop because everyone is waiting for the new president to be confirmed before choosing investment methods and targets.
Because different US presidents have different policies and directions, everyone does not want to take too many risks. After all, there are few entrepreneurs who like to take risks like Musk; most people are neutral and wait for results like Buffett.
Cognitive Society believes that current data indicates Trump has a better chance of winning, but until results are out, no one dares to say absolutely, especially right before the election when opinions can change at any time.
Of course, it is amazing that the US election can attract the attention of countries around the world, which indirectly proves the significance and strength of the US as the number one country.
Being far ahead is not about bragging; it requires real strength.
Bitcoin support level 68000 66000 is key. Holding 68000 will lead to a rapid rebound. The real risk in the market now is the risk-averse sentiment of everyone before the US election.
Bitcoin needs to stabilize at 71500. I hope the US spot ETF can continue to bring in funds, as the current funds in the market cannot support Bitcoin.
Cognitive Society believes that the core factor affecting Bitcoin's medium-term outlook is Trump's presidency and the US interest rate cuts. As long as Trump is the president, the crypto industry should experience a significant surge, but if... a sharp drop occurs.
After December, market liquidity will gradually increase, and combined with the certainty after the US election, Cognitive Society still believes the market will gradually improve.
Ethereum spot ETF had a total net outflow of $1,092,560 yesterday.
Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net outflow of $5,494,030 yesterday, marking the first net outflow after seven days of net inflow.
This week, the US Bitcoin ETF purchased Bitcoin worth $2,274,720,000, but this week's mining output was only 3150 BTC, with demand exceeding supply.
📍Cognitive Society interpretation: The anxiety before the US election affects the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs.
QCP: The US election week is approaching, and the short-term implied volatility of BTC and ETH remains high.
Odaily Planet Daily News QCP Capital released a weekend summary report, which noted that Thursday's core PCE data was slightly higher than expected, while Friday's non-farm payroll data unexpectedly decreased, leading to a rebound in the dollar index and recovering to 104 levels. This week, Bitcoin's net inflow exceeded $2.1 billion. BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day net inflow of $872 million, the largest single-day net inflow since its launch in January.
Despite Bitcoin dropping below $69,000 on Friday, market interest remains strong, with BTC futures and BTC options total open interest remaining high at $40.65 billion and $25.3 billion respectively. Although Trump is favored to become the next US president, the betting rate on Trump has significantly dropped from a peak of 66% on Polymarket to 57% and 43%. In the upcoming election week, the short-term implied volatility of BTC and ETH remains high (above 72 volatility units), as traders increase their downward protection, and the skewness of put options continues to rise.
Cognitive Society interpretation: Everyone must pay attention to the results of the US election.
21Shares has submitted an S-1 form to the SEC to apply for the launch of an XRP ETF.
According to the official website of the US SEC, 21Shares has submitted an S-1 form to the SEC to apply for the launch of an XRP ETF (21Shares Core XRP Trust). This ETF will track the price of XRP and plans to list on the Cboe BZX exchange. The ETF does not involve leverage or derivatives, aiming to reflect XRP's performance in USD through the CME CF Ripple-Dollar reference rate (New York version). Coinbase Custody will act as the custodian for this ETF's XRP, responsible for safeguarding all assets.
📍Cognitive Society's interpretation: Cognitive Society stated that altcoin ETFs could potentially be SOL, XRP, UNI.
Michael Saylor announced the 9 Bitcoin principles of MicroStrategy.
Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, announced the 9 Bitcoin principles of MicroStrategy on the X platform, including:
1. Purchase and hold BTC indefinitely, exclusively, and safely;
2. Prioritize the long-term value creation of MSTR common stock;
3. Treat all investors with respect, consistency, and transparency;
4. Build MSTR through smart leverage to surpass BTC;
5. Continuously purchase BTC while achieving positive BTC returns;
6. Grow quickly and responsibly according to market dynamics;
7. Issue innovative fixed-income securities backed by BTC;
8. Maintain a healthy, robust, and pure balance sheet;
9. Promote the global adoption of BTC as a fiscal reserve asset.
📍In-depth interpretation: It's really not a good thing; the concentration of any company in Bitcoin is bad news.
🔹Summary: Bitcoin 68000 66000 is an important support level, 71500 is an important resistance level. Every drop in Bitcoin is an entry opportunity for Ethereum.
Starting from May 2024, it will be the mid-term bull market for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Every sharp drop is an opportunity. Long-term K-line research should focus on Ethereum, UNI, OP, NEAR, BLUR, and LINK.
🔹Short-term data
Disclaimer: The K-line data analysis provided by Cognitive Society is based on data analysis, does not represent any position, and does not receive any funds from any project parties.
🏷Bitcoin
Support level: 68500 66000
Resistance level: 70500 71500
🏷Ethereum
2400 is a key support level, and 2580 is a short-term resistance level.
On November 1, Ethereum's lowest point was 2470, aligning with the support level of 2480 mentioned in yesterday's Cognitive Society article.
On November 1, Ethereum's lowest point was 2470, aligning with the support level of 2480 mentioned in yesterday's Cognitive Society article.
On October 31, Ethereum's lowest point was 2530, which is close to the support level of 2560 mentioned in yesterday's Cognitive Society article.
On October 30, Ethereum's highest point was 2720, aligning with the resistance level of 2730 mentioned in yesterday's Cognitive Society article.
Every sharp drop in Ethereum is an entry opportunity.
Laying out Ethereum is the core strategy.
Resistance level: 2530 2600
Support level: 2460 2400
SOL
If 160 does not break, there is still hope for a rebound.
🏷LINK
10.8 10 support level 12 has not stabilized.
New value, new RWA leader. A sharp drop can be configured. Cognitive Society laid out LINK in 2022 and 2023.
🏷uni
7.2 is key.
Cognitive Society believes that UNI needs to buy back tokens with profits and then destroy them to take off.
Resistance level: 7.6 7.8
Support level: 7.2 7
🏷️WIF
2.2 and 2 are important support levels, currently being contested. 2.45 is a resistance level.
On November 1, WIF retraced to a low of 2.14, close to the support level of 2.26 mentioned in yesterday's Cognitive Society article.
On November 1, WIF retraced to a low of 2.24, aligning with the support level of 2.26 mentioned in yesterday's Cognitive Society article.
On October 31, WIF retraced to a low of 2.44, aligning with the support level of 2.4 mentioned in yesterday's Cognitive Society article.
On October 30, WIF rebounded to a high of 2.7, perfectly aligning with the resistance level of 2.7 mentioned in yesterday's Cognitive Society article.
On October 29, WIF retraced to a low of 2.24, which aligns with the support level of 2.2 mentioned in yesterday's Cognitive Society article.
🏷️BLUR
0.21 is very weak...
🏷️DOGE
0.15 0.14 is an important support level.
🏷OP
Cognitive Society believes that OP near 1.2 can still be considered.
Resistance level: 1.6 1.7
Support level: 1.4 1.3
🏷CRV
Contested near 0.25.
🏷️JTO
2.1 1.8 is an important support level.
🏷️BOME
It's really exaggerated, one-sided. 0.0072 was also ordinary before; strong support level is 0.0062.
🏷1000SATS
0.00022 is key; if it breaks, it weakens and bottoms.
Extremely volatile; strictly control positions.
🏷1000RATS
0.09 is the short-term support level.
1000RATS rebounded to near the cost, reducing positions. After reducing positions, lower the proportion of long-term positions; the volatility is too great for the average person to tolerate.
🏷NEAR
Weakness bottoming.
When NEAR's price was around 1 in 2023, Cognitive Society exclusively reminded to dollar-cost average from near 1.3 to 1.
Resistance level: 4.1 4.3
Support level: 3.8 3.6
🏷️JUP
0.9 is the short-term bottom line.
🏷AI and NFP
If it drops too deep, it's not that there are no updates; it's just that we can only wait.
To be strong, it needs to stabilize at 0.65.
🏷BNB
On Earth, when BNB was around 200, Cognitive Society exclusively reminded to dollar-cost average from BNB 210 to 180.
Support level: 560 550
Resistance level: 580 590
Waiting for a bit more rebound to update other assets.
🔹Cognitive Society's attitude towards making money.
Cognitive Society does not like to play the game of hindsight.
They don't like to boast about how all the money is made with those KOLs.
If anyone in the crypto world can take advantage of every coin's rise and fall.
One year of leveraged pairing doesn't mean making 10 billion.
But the second largest exchange in the world is watching the manipulators in the market, and it only lost tens of billions before going bankrupt.
Form your own trading system, earn money within your cognitive range, don't fantasize about catching every rise and fall every day, and especially don't fantasize about catching every rise and fall of every coin. There is no such person on Earth, nor such an institution. If such an institution existed, the exchange FTX, which watched the main players, would not have gone bankrupt.
Desire and ability are mismatched.
The heart can never be at peace.
How can you hold onto coins if your heart is not calm?
Many people like to rely on others' promises and guarantees to hold onto coins during a crash.
Banks can go bankrupt; even some major national currencies can collapse. Evergrande and Zhongzhi have both gone bankrupt with trillions.
Do you think in such a high-risk place in the crypto industry, those who promise returns are trustworthy?
The charlatan speaks nonsense; in real crashes and bear markets, have you seen those who boast during bull markets still around?
