With the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaching, the tension in the capital markets has reached a critical point, and the cryptocurrency market is particularly anxious. This year, Trump, who has experienced a life-and-death crisis, is campaigning vigorously, and his slogan of 'making America the crypto capital' has instantly ignited enthusiasm in the crypto circle. However, history repeatedly reminds us that subtle changes in policy often become a watershed for the market.
In 1933, after Roosevelt came to power, the 'New Deal' completely reshaped the economic rules in the United States overnight, forcing a large number of businesses to adapt to the new policy direction, and the market landscape was reshuffled. This time, the cryptocurrency industry may be facing a similar fate. As Harris steadily advances in her campaign, her policy stance being highly consistent with Biden's means that the current government's anti-cryptocurrency regulations may continue to intensify. For a cryptocurrency market that advocates freedom and decentralization, this policy direction may represent a true life-and-death test.
If Harris is elected, what will the future of cryptocurrencies look like?
According to the data from prediction site Polymarket, Trump's probability of winning is currently 62.5%, while Harris's chances are only 37.5%. Although the prediction market believes Trump has a higher probability of winning, polls show that Harris has a slight national lead over Trump by 1%, and 10% of voters may change their stance before the election.
In the seven key swing states that will determine the election outcome, Harris has a support rate of 49%, slightly ahead of Trump's 48%. Just a week ago, Trump was leading Harris in these states with 50% to 46%.
Therefore, although many cryptocurrency supporters are more optimistic about Trump's election, Harris still has the potential to succeed.
First, we must admit that once Harris is elected, there is a high probability that she will continue the policy tone of the Biden era. At this moment, cryptocurrency investors feel a bit like they are on a roller coaster.
If Harris wins, the price of Bitcoin may see a significant decline by the end of the year, possibly dropping by 10%.
Although in the long term, regardless of who takes over the White House, the general direction of the cryptocurrency market will not change, a bull market will eventually come, but the road may be a bit bumpy. However, the short-term impact on the market cannot be ignored, especially for those who prefer short-term trading.
So, there are two key points here: first, Biden-style policies are not friendly to cryptocurrencies; second, the market is speculating whether Harris will intensify regulation, leading to greater uncertainty.
Even so, Bitcoin may bottom out and rebound in 2025, leading the entire market into a new bull market. These predictions are not unfounded, as both Bitcoin and altcoins have already seen significant fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market become the norm. For some staunch supporters, these are merely short-term fluctuations and do not represent a reversal of the overall trend.
Will loose monetary policy become a driving force for the bull market?
If Harris is elected, special attention should be paid to the liquidity of money in the global economy.
This is a key point: will the so-called 'hot money' flow back into the cryptocurrency market again, becoming a catalyst for a new bull market? The looser the monetary policy, the greater the likelihood of funds flowing into the cryptocurrency market. Considering the current uncertainty in the global economy and the generally loose policies adopted by central banks around the world, the inflow of hot money could indeed bring more market opportunities.
If the Federal Reserve adopts a more accommodative stance under Harris's leadership, then even if regulatory challenges exist, increased market liquidity will still support prices. In other words, the further Harris's policies go down the path of 'loose money,' the greater the potential for a bull market in the cryptocurrency market.
However, the premise of all this is whether the United States can bear greater inflationary pressure. It is foreseeable that if Harris tries to continue implementing loose policies, she will inevitably encounter considerable fiscal pressure and market resistance. In this case, businesses and investors must be wary of the volatility risks in the cryptocurrency market and should not easily ignore the chain reactions brought about by monetary policy.
Currently, there are only four days left until the U.S. election voting day. Regardless of who takes over the White House, the fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are probably inevitable. In the short term, strict policy control or favorable monetary easing will only be a peak or trough in the market wave; however, in the long run, the forward direction of the cryptocurrency market will not change because of this, but the path will become more tortuous and unpredictable.
