The stock market-based model shows a probability of about 70% for who will win the US election.
Mark Hulbert of Market Watch writes:
This stock market prediction model is not complicated. It uses the historical trend to predict the incumbent party’s chances of winning the election to reflect the Dow’s year-to-date performance. The model’s past performance is statistically significant — at a level of 99%.
A 99% confidence model predicts that when the Dow has been on a year-to-date rise, the results are in favor of the incumbent party.
The result is that the incumbent will win #Harris ,
the model gives it a 69% chance of winning
