1. The Qing government fiercely criticized the United States' latest sale of advanced weapons to the Taiwan military, saying that the $2 billion sale (including surface-to-air missiles and radar systems) seriously violated its sovereignty. It was reported that these weapons were used by Taiwan to counter China's military pressure. China said that the deal threatened peace in the Taiwan Strait and warned that it would not rule out the possibility of using material force.
2. Before posting: #Trump's approval rating is 66.5%, while #Harris's is 34%. There are only 7 days left until the 2024 US election (Figure 1)
3. Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed three people. According to the state news agency, Israeli jets attacked the Ramir community in Tyre, killing at least three people and injuring two.
4. As Israel's weekend attack on Iran is not believed to disrupt oil supply, oil prices fell by more than 4%, with Brent crude falling to around $71 and#WTIfalling to around $68. Israel's attack targeted military facilities but did not cause damage to oil or civilian infrastructure. Experts predict that Brent crude may find it difficult to reach $80 this year.
In addition, China, the world's largest crude oil importer, is facing its worst economic problems in decades, which has also had a negative impact on oil demand.
5. The S&P 500 index rarely falls in election years, and it has only happened twice in 70 years (Figure 2)
6. Japanese assets fell rapidly. Due to the uncertainty of the future political situation, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's gamble of holding an early general election failed, which hit the confidence of Japanese asset investors. Japanese stocks will be sold off. The US dollar has reached 152.7 against the yen.
7. Industrial profits of China's large enterprises fell to the lowest level since the COVID-19 crisis. In September, the industrial profits of China's large enterprises plummeted by 27.1% year-on-year, the largest drop since the COVID-19 crisis. China is in serious economic difficulties (Figure 3)
8. Continuing from the previous one, the Qing Dynasty Politburo reiterated the resolution of key risks and anti-corruption: The Politburo meeting held on Monday reported that China will focus on preventing and resolving risks in key areas. The meeting emphasized strengthening the party's governing capacity and anti-corruption efforts. What's scary is that the report did not mention stimulus measures.
9. Macro data to watch this week:
Tuesday: Consumer confidence data and JOLT job openings (employment data)
Wednesday: Q3 GDP and ADP nonfarm payrolls
Thursday: September PCE inflation data and initial jobless claims, core personal consumption expenditure inflation
Friday: October employment report (unemployment rate), ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls and Bank of Japan monetary policy statement
As well as the financial reports released by 20% of the S&P 500 companies, there will be some fluctuations in the stock market and cryptocurrencies during this period.
10. Global M2 is on an upward trend, and many central banks have started the era of printing money, which will soon benefit Bitcoin $BTC and even altcoins (Figure 4)
11. Combined with this week's macro data, Bitcoin #BTC☀️ may hover between 67K-69K this week (leverage position). Since it has entered the strong accumulation area, Q4 will have a certain performance with the election and the positive news of US stocks.
12. British man sentenced to 18 years in prison for using#AIto create child abuse images based on real photos
