Is this your reason for being bullish to 100,000 in the fourth quarter?

1. U.S. Election: Over the past decade, we have seen two presidents, Trump and Biden, and BTC has gone through two cycles of bull and bear markets, which has nothing to do with who is president.

2. Improving Employment: Whether there is a soft landing will be seen next year at the earliest; a better unemployment rate has actually slowed down the pace and extent of interest rate cuts.

3. New Highs in the U.S. Stock Market: It is normal for the cryptocurrency market to lead the decline independently; this happens when the U.S. stock market rises, but what happens when it falls?

4. Large Inflows into ETFs: The recent significant influx into BTC has not caused much of a price increase, indicating that large funds are also exiting at the same time; Grayscale's clients have previously experienced paper losses, and BlackRock is just profiting?

5. Weekly MACD Golden Cross: Meaningless; after a golden cross, a death cross can follow.

6. Post-halving Price Trends: The key factor affecting the long-term trend of cryptocurrency prices is no longer halving but monetary policy. This round of monetary policy, regardless of whether interest rates are raised or lowered, will last much longer than the previous cycle, and the adjustment period will also be lengthy.

The core driver of cryptocurrency prices is the liquidity brought by monetary policy. The balance sheet is still being reduced, the dollar is rebounding strongly, interest rates are still high, and achieving QE is still far off. We are nowhere near a point to welcome a bubble, but the price of cryptocurrencies has risen from 15,500 to 68,000. I really can't find a reason to buy cryptocurrency now!