The recent election heat seems to be getting closer and closer to the trend of US stocks and Bitcoin. This is what I emphasized before. The election is very important! It represents the expectations for the next period of time. The figure only has four days of data, from (TALK Jun)

Look at Figure 1. The white line is the possibility of Trump winning the election, and the blue line is the price of Bitcoin. The part below shows the correlation between them. In June and July, the two lines almost went hand in hand, and they were particularly consistent.

But in September, the relationship faded and was not very relevant. However, starting from October 13, the two lines suddenly became closely dependent on each other, and this change can only be seen in the four-day data.

After Trump was assassinated at the end of June, he announced that he would attend the Bitcoin Conference at the end of July. From then on, the two lines began to have a clear connection. Later, he gave a speech in support of Bitcoin at the conference on July 27, and the correlation between the two lines has been very high since then.

If Trump performs well in the November election, Bitcoin may have a good opportunity, but altcoins may not.

If the election expectations have been priced in in advance, then the event will be negative news once it happens, so pay attention to the timing of entry and exit.