Reference source: Bankless
Written by: Golem
Bitcoin prices opened October on a downward trend, dipping as low as near $59,000. However, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded well recently. So as the market trend tends to be positive, what will be the subsequent performance of altcoins in October?
The Bankless analysis team made predictions on the price trends of 10 altcoins around October, with 5 tokens being bullish and bearish respectively. This article will collate the predictions and reasons of the Bankless analyst team, and summarize its previous token predictions for October expiration for readers’ own reference.
Predicted winning rate at October expiration: 70%
Excluding the neutral tokens, there are a total of 10 token trends predicted by the Bankless analysis team to expire in October. The prediction results are as follows:
Bullish but lower forecasts: Instadapp (INST) down 43%;
Bearish forecast but positive: Maple Finance (MPL) up 43.56%, BNB Chain (BNB) up 2%;
The bearish predictions are consistent with the actual declines: Ondo Finance (ONDO) fell 25.28%, Livepeer (LPT) fell 27%, ETH Name Service (ENS) fell 36.71%, Celestia (TIA) fell 1%, Polkadot (DOT) fell 36.46%, Celestia (TIA) fell 1%, Polkadot (DOT) fell 36.46%, Celestia (TIA) fell 1%, Polkadot (DOT) fell 36.46%, Celestia (TIA) fell 1%) fell 36.46%, ether.fi (ETHFI) Down 40%, Worldcoin (WLD) fell 26.07%.
Among them, Instadapp (INST) and Maple Finance (MPL) are the ones with the most serious negative comments, and ether.fi (ETHFI) is predicted to have higher returns. However, the overall win rate for tokens predicted to expire in October is still 70%.
Bullish Token
dYdX（DYDX）
Track: DeFi
Reason: The launch of the US election prediction market may increase the DYDX staking yield
Forecast period: October 16, 2024 to January 16, 2025
Coin price at time of prediction: $0.96
Predicted currency price performance so far: up 1.28%
DYDX has fallen 26% since the Bankless analyst team turned bearish on July 23 on concerns about a decline in dYdX's usage indicator. But now, a bullish catalyst has emerged. dYdX’s recently launched “TRUMPWIN-USD” trading market will allow traders to go long or short on whether Trump can be elected president of the United States with up to 20x leverage.
While predicting extreme market movements may require forced deleveraging or closing winning positions to prevent market insolvency before the event settles, there is no denying that the extreme leverage provided by these contracts is bound to attract a large number of speculators. Although the product has only been around for a while, competitive prediction market Polymarket has already seen its monthly numbers double as demand for its presidential predictions surges, a trend that is almost certain to accelerate as the U.S. election approaches.
DYDX staker rewards are positively correlated with the growing demand for the dYdX perpetual contract market. Given that the leveraged U.S. presidential prediction market could be a compelling product, staker yields are likely to increase in the coming weeks, pushing the token price higher.
Jupiter(JUP)
Track: DeFi
Reason: Grayscale is optimistic, product and market fit are high
Forecast period: October 15, 2024 to January 15, 2025
Coin price at time of prediction: $0.88
Predicted currency price performance so far: down 3.66%
On October 10, Grayscale added JUP to its “Assets Under Consideration” list, marking the token as a candidate token that may be included in future investment products.
Jupiter is a full-service exchange deployed on Solana. Its core product is a DEX aggregator that automatically routes users' transactions to the pool with the best execution price. While Jupiter currently charges no swap fees and its swap smart contracts do hold assets, the exchange handles hundreds of millions of dollars in spot token swaps every day and could easily monetize its order flow at some point in the future.
Although Jupiter’s fully diluted valuation is $9 billion, it is 15% higher than Uniswap. This valuation difference is likely because Jupiter also has complementary products, such as extremely highly leveraged perpetual futures (yields up to 28% on $700 million in liquidity) and a robust token launch platform.
Thala (THL)
Track: DeFi
Reason: Aptos ecological head agreement can obtain ecological development dividends
Forecast period: October 7, 2024 to January 7, 2025
Coin price at time of prediction: $0.51
Predicted currency price performance so far: up 6.14%
While Aptos has been under the spotlight due to its continued underperformance throughout 2024, there is a lot of hope that APT could be the next beneficiary of the L1 boom, with the ecosystem showing health since mid-September.
Thala (THL) is a comprehensive DeFi application that offers token swaps, liquidity staking, and over-collateralized stablecoins. It is the largest investable application and the third largest protocol by TVL on the Aptos network.
Thala is built using Move, a programming language unique to networks such as Aptos and Sui. Although there are competitors on both chains, the protocol's market share is not encroached by mature EVM alternatives such as Uniswap. Additionally, Thala can technically be deployed to Move-based networks such as Movement.
Apartments（APT）
Track: L1
Reason: Good fundamentals
Forecast period: October 4, 2024 to January 4, 2025
Coin price at time of prediction: $9.13
Predicted currency price performance so far: up 9.97%
Aptos has been underperforming since the start of 2023, but the token recovered after hitting its nadir in August and doubled in the two months prior to this analysis.
Although the Aptos application scenario is still immature and the valuation is much higher than that of Ethereum, Aptos’ on-chain fundamentals appear to be positive. With the number of daily active addresses steadily rising, the TVL indicator has also reached a record high.
Aptos has a theoretical maximum throughput of 160,000 transactions per second (TPS), making it one of the fastest blockchains in the crypto space. This feature makes it ideal for the frequency requirements of high-performance applications in emerging crypto fields such as DePIN. Width.
Axles（AXL）
Track: Infrastructure
Reason: Launching new cross-chain features to take advantage of the recent boom in L1 networks
Forecast period: October 3, 2024 to January 3, 2025
Coin price at time of prediction: $0.65
Predicted currency price performance so far: up 23.15%
Launched on October 3, Axelar’s Mobius Development Stack (MDS) is the latest cross-chain interoperability standard utilizing the AXL token, providing a set of open tools and protocols that its developers claim will “unlock a new full-chain design.” space and bring a new dimension to building in Web3.”
With Axelar's Interchain Amplifier, bridge connections between new chains can be easily established at the smart contract level without major protocol changes, allowing the new interoperability standard to support Flow, Hedera, Solana, Stacks, Stellar, Sui by default and XRP Ledger.
While AXL tokens retain utility functionality under MDS and can be tied as collateral by network validators to process transactions, the structure also allows for re-validation using ETH or BTC collateral for enhanced security guarantees.
The Bankless analyst team is bullish on AXL’s token performance, arguing that the interoperability token is well-positioned to ride on the recent outperformance of L1 tokens, which could accelerate increased network exploration and bridging activity.
Bearish Token
Uniswap（UNI）
Track: DeFi
Reason: still needs bridging, swap experience may be bad
Forecast period: October 10, 2024 to January 10, 2025
Coin price at time of prediction: $8.35
Predicted currency price performance so far: down 9.1%
On October 10, Uniswap launched Unichain, a universal rollup built on the OP Stack with the aim of becoming a liquidity center for cryptocurrencies and solving the inevitable liquidity created by Ethereum’s rollup-centric roadmap Fragmentation problem.
The network intends to leverage a Trusted Execution Environment (TEE) secured by UNI validators, who provide fast pre-confirmations and earn network fees for their services while quadrupling user transaction wait times from 1 second to 200- 250 milliseconds, and implements the long-awaited use of the token UNI as a network gas consumption token.
But Unichain exchanges still require time-consuming bridging transactions, although OP Stack’s native interoperability is expected to significantly reduce OP Stack internal chain bridging wait times and transaction costs.
The Bankless analyst team is bearish on the price of UNI because while Unichain has grand plans for an interoperable future and empowers UNI, the need for bridging fundamentally creates a worse swap experience. Since profit-conscious on-chain traders are unlikely to default to Unichain for worse execution and longer wait times, it’s hard to imagine this experiment doing anything other than increasing liquidity fragmentation and worsening trade execution. What results will it bring.
Wormhole（W）
Track: Infrastructure
Reason: The incentives for the new airdrop activity are not very attractive, the transaction volume has dropped, and it is difficult for the market to absorb future token unlocking
Forecast period: October 2, 2024 to January 2, 2025
Coin price at time of prediction: $0.36
Predicted currency price performance so far: down 17.48%
The Bankless analyst team was bearish on W token performance in August. Whether Wormhole’s new airdrop campaign will inspire adoption of the token remains unknown, and the market may struggle to absorb future token supply.
While the token price rose throughout the month as the overall crypto market strengthened, Wormhole trading volume plummeted 36% ($255 million) from August to September, and the token price rose at BlackRock on BUIDL Blockchain infrastructure partner Securitize has seen significant gains in the days after it announced it would leverage Wormhole to provide cross-chain capabilities for its tokenized asset products.
Meanwhile, South Korean exchange Upbit also listed the W trading pair on October 2, causing the token’s price to immediately spike by 30%, with price action beginning to reverse shortly after trading went live.
The Bankless analyst team continues to be bearish on W in October, doubting the benefits of future Wormhole airdrop incentive programs, while doubting whether the high-profile partnership announcement can reverse the decline in trading volume, and believes that the FOMO caused by Upbit's listing will be fleeting. .
OwnLayer（OWN）
Track: Infrastructure
Reason: The token is overvalued and the actual return rate of AVS may not be good
Forecast period: October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2025
Coin price at time of prediction: $4
Predicted currency price performance so far: down 16%
At the time of analysis, EIGEN was trading with a market capitalization of $740 million, giving a fully diluted valuation of nearly $6.7 billion. While restaking is touted as the future of cryptoeconomic security, EigenLayer’s high valuation may be difficult to justify in the coming months.
From a fundamental perspective, EigenLayer and its apps are bound to be valued for their revenue-generating capabilities; while it's impossible to determine those numbers without live AVS, the profit prospects for the entire EigenLayer ecosystem are also questionable.
Even under the most optimistic scenario, leading AVS may generate only a few percentage points of real yield. Crypto investors will need to absorb token inflation that subsidizes low returns, an inherently unsustainable balance, especially for new services with little or no immediate integration.
Ether.fi（ETHFI）
Track: LST
Reason: The token is overvalued, and it is difficult for the market to bear the huge amount of subsequent explanations.
Forecast period: September 30, 2024 to December 30, 2024
Coin price at time of prediction: $1.82
Predicted currency price performance so far: down 8.24%
In July, the Bankless analyst team was bearish on ETHFI, anticipating that TVL fund outflows would be used to chase other air speculation opportunities and allocate more tokens, which would weaken the growth hopes supporting ether.fi’s high valuation and lead to the token Prices fell.
But rather than losing market share and TVL to competitors, ether.fi has successfully increased its deposits through the creation of novel re-hypothecation tokens and an ongoing airdrop program, although its permanent token issuance policy has had a significant impact on price negative impact. The ETHFI team and investor unlocking is scheduled to begin on March 17 next year, an event that is sure to attract the attention of many holders in 2025. While the airdrop incentives have proven successful in retaining deposits, ether.fi’s The deal trades at a higher fully diluted valuation than Lido.
The Bankless analyst team remains bearish on ETHFI prices, arguing that the market will struggle to absorb its continued airdrop issuance given the token’s extremely overvalued nature relative to LDO.
Solana（SUN）
Track: L1
Reason: Ecological stagnation, performance may not be as good as other L1
Forecast period: September 26, 2024 to December 26, 2024
Coin price at time of prediction: $156.15
Predicted currency price performance so far: down 1.84%
The Bankless analyst team began taking a bearish stance on SOL on June 21, predicting that growing disillusionment with the ecosystem’s meme coins would lead to its underperformance in the coming months.
Although in retrospect, the timing of this forecast was poor, as it was issued just days before SOL rebounded from the range lows, where it remained in the following months despite multiple retests. Range lows, but the ecosystem was noticeably apathetic during this period.
Solana’s TVL has been stagnant since the overall cryptocurrency market peaked in March. Network fee revenue has been trending downward, and while its native token has outperformed established Meme tokens (i.e. BONK and WIF) in recent months, it is also a risk-off signal that the ecosystem’s golden age may be over. past. This is a worrying prospect for a token that is predicated on investor outperformance.
The Bankless analyst team remains bearish on SOL, arguing that the relative attractiveness of other L1s will increase in the foreseeable future, undermining investor confidence in Solana's narrative.
(The above content is excerpted and reprinted with the authorization of our partner PANews, original text link | Source: Odaily Planet Daily)
Statement: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective views and positions of the blockchain. All contents and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and Blockchain Client will not be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by investors' transactions.
"Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, what will be the subsequent performance of alternative coins? Bankless predicts the trend of 10 tokens." This article was first published on (Block Guest).
