If L2 continues to "suck blood from Ethereum", it will hit ETH hard, and the target price will be difficult to reach 10,000.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at US asset management giant VanEck, adjusted Ethereum's target price for 2030, lowering it by 67% from $22,000 to $7,334, because L2 has obtained more transaction revenue from the Ethereum mainnet, accounting for 90%.
The phenomenon of Ethereum L2 "sucking blood" from Ethereum has been widely discussed and seems to have begun to affect Ethereum's future valuation. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at US asset management giant VanEck, adjusted ETH's price forecast for 2030.
He pointed out that if the distribution of transaction revenue between Ethereum and its L2 continues to be unbalanced, ETH's target price for 2030 will be significantly reduced by 67% from the original $22,000.
As Ethereum's fundamentals have changed, he believes that Ethereum's price prediction model should be updated.
Sigel maintains the TVL distribution assumption unchanged, that is, 50:50 distribution between Ethereum mainnet and L2. In addition, the MEV estimate, the model predicts that MEV accounts for 0.10% of TVL each year, and this part of the data remains unchanged. Because these two assumptions are consistent with the current situation.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin also realized in his latest article that if Ethereum itself is not further expanded, it may lead to a decline in the value of ETH, thereby affecting the long-term security of the network.
