The market currently expects a 35% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months.
This is down from about 50% a few months ago, but still above the historical average.
Among the different indicators, the Fed's interest rate policy expectations over the next 12 months imply an 84% chance of a recession.
Meanwhile, the US yield curve predicts a 28% chance of a downturn.
The future outlook suggests that a "soft landing" is almost certain!
