Amid the volatile market of Bitcoin, over the past 24 hours, the total amount of cryptocurrency liquidations exceeded US$240 million (US$208 million for short positions), and nearly 66,000 people were liquidated.
I remind you again not to play contracts unless it is a deterministic event!
Here are the daily liquidations of BTC ETH SOL BNB SUI! Isn't that enough? Why do you have to play contracts? You may have seen that he made thousands of U or even tens of thousands of U from 10U 100U! But have you ever thought about it! Why is there only 100U in his account? It's scary to think about it!
Unless it is a coin that is certain to fall, you can play with contracts, and play with a light position! I clearly bearish on CATIS and HMSTR before! Play with them! Don't touch other coins! ! Unless you have a lot of money! Then I won't stop you!
BTC surged 6%, reaching a high of 66,500. Is the surge a lure to buy more?
After Bitcoin retreated to 62,500, it rose straight to 66,500, setting a new high in recent times. Ethereum also rose from around 2,440 to around 2,650. This wave of counterattack also indicates that the bulls have taken the lead. Bitcoin currently only has trend pressure around 68,000. It would be healthier to adjust around 65,000 and then attack again. In a strong case, it will get support near 65,500 and attack 68,000 before falling back. It is more ideal to retreat to 64,500 to get support and then attack 68,000 again. You can pay attention to the opportunity to enter the copycat position again near the trend line!
In the 20-21 bull market cycle, Bitcoin followed a 3-day rebound cycle after the halving, which lasted for 12 months and had an upside of 50,000 points. The last round of Bitcoin halving was on May 12, 2020, with a real price of around 10,000 yuan, so the peak reached before May 2021 was around 60,000 yuan, and the second peak in the second half of the year was 69,000 US dollars.
If the weekly line goes for 12 months, the upside is 12,000+, plus the price of Bitcoin during the halving of the bull market is 73,000 US dollars. If the monthly line goes for 12 months, the upside is 70,000, so the highest point is 150,000+.
Based on comprehensive judgment, the possible highest point range of Bitcoin in the next bull market is: around 128,000 to 149,000 US dollars!
From the perspective of ETH history, December is a magical month. Several absolute bottoms occurred in December. It fell to 6U in December 2016, 80U in December 2018, 116U in December 2019, and 1150U in December 2022. From the perspective of the ETH/BTC exchange rate, the first two cycles bottomed out in December of the same year after breaking through the key horizontal support, and it has now broken through the key horizontal support. (Ethereum should be able to break through the high of 4093 in March in the fourth quarter.) Will ETH bottom out in December this year? Pay attention to December~
ETH rose synchronously with BTC, breaking through with large volume and coming above 2600. There will be a short-term correction trend during the day. The 4-hour level entered the overbought range, and the daily level was higher than the healthy level. Those who are short in the intraday correction need to follow up, and those who have positions should maintain them. The upper resistance during the day is 2670-2720, and the lower support during the day is 2520-2550.
About the progress of this round of bull market: 60%, officially entering the beginning of the third stage - the middle and late stage of the bull market. If this stage is predicted according to the modeling, it should end before August 25. I will not go into a long article, but just talk about a few key phenomena and trends!
At the beginning of the big market, here are some advices:
1. Give priority to individual targets with bottom oscillation, clear accumulation structure, and large-scale pulling up. They will be the first to come out. Don't jump out of the stock market just because you see that other targets you hold are not rising. You may end up with nothing.
2. Don’t care about the cost, don’t be too concerned about comparing and pricing, and don’t define whether it’s expensive or cheap.
3. Don’t worry about whether the market is bullish or not, or whether it will rebound or not. Just follow the stop-profit and stop-loss trigger conditions you set in advance and firmly execute them, thus avoiding the influence of your mentality.
The market will be very exciting in the next few months. Don't be short, and be sure to pay attention to these hot spots in the market:
1. Ethereum has entered the second half. Driven by multiple favorable factors (such as ETF, ecological development, positive deflation, etc.), the momentum will only increase. Just continue to wait patiently.
2. The main line of the bull market narrative is still AI, games, MEME, public chains, staking and RWA, and the rotation rhythm is still effective.
3. The general trend of the market is still upward, and the correction after the sharp rise has stabilized, which is the best time to enter the market.
4. Avoid frequent position changes. Previous bull market experience tells me that abandoning the chips bought at the bottom and chasing the rise is often the easiest way to lose money in a bull market. Only when the wind comes can you dance gracefully.
Ethereum is strong, and the copycat is recovering. Once the adjustments are in place, the copycat season will explode with a big explosion in Q4.
