November was relatively friendly to the cryptocurrency community.
Judging from the historical return rate of Bitcoin, the historical return rate in October has been relatively good in the past 11 years. The average return rate in November is the highest in the whole year, with an average of 46.81%. There were 7 years with positive returns and 4 years with negative returns.
From the perspective of interest rate cuts, there is an expected interest rate cut in November, and the latest forecast shows that the probability of a 25BP cut is 95.6%.
In addition, regardless of whether the interest rate is lowered or not, the expectation is good. Before the interest rate is lowered, this expectation will always be positive.
From the perspective of the election, the latest US polls show that Trump's approval rating has risen sharply recently, surpassing Harris by more than 10 points to 54.9%. A month or two ago, Harris was in the lead. Trump's election is a huge potential positive for cryptocurrencies.
From a long-term perspective, looking at the wash and K-line trends, Bitcoin has been washed for more than half a year since it first broke through 73,000 in mid-March. As a mid-term correction in the bull market, the time is long enough. In the past six months, Germany sold 50,000 coins, the potential sell-off of Mentougou in the past ten years was completed during this period, and Grayscale sold nearly 200,000 coins (438,200 on March 1, and 219,900 left today), plus other long-term potential profit and loss turnover.
Where did these sold coins go?
Although the market conditions were not good last week, the ETF still saw inflows of over US$300 million.
Looking at the inflows of Bitcoin ETF in recent months, we can see that all of it has gone into the hands of American capital, not retail investors.
The above is based on the perspective of Bitcoin.
Judging from the volatile decline of Bitcoin in the past few months, on the one hand, the capital itself needs to get low-priced chips and deliberately lower the price. On the other hand, it is to get rid of lice, that is, the market value of the copycats.
By continuously pushing up and suppressing the price of Bitcoin, a bear market atmosphere is created, and the copycat stocks are forced to be smashed.
Over the past few months, the altcoins have risen and fallen, and overall there has been a sharp drop, except for the relatively strong MEME coin.
This kind of market-crashing and cleansing has occurred in previous bull markets, but it was usually short and rapid, not this slow.
Looking at the overall position of the cottage, a bottom W structure has been seen in the past two months, that is, it rises for a period and falls for a period, but most of the bottoms have been rising.
Under this kind of market conditions, we must be bullish on pullbacks and must stick to one direction, except for a few times when we need to turn short-term to bearish.
This few times refers to: similar to the previous sudden explosion in Iran, the inertial decline at the beginning of the month.
So is the news about Americans selling coins true? Will it cause the market to go down?
A few days ago, some news suddenly came out, claiming that the Americans were going to sell the "Silk Road" currency, and as a result, Bitcoin fell below 59,000.
News like this is just to fool idiots, and the purpose is very clear: the market has a large number of long orders and (spot speculation) profits on the lower side, and the upward attack is weak. There are billions of long orders accumulated between 56,000 and 59,000 that need to be cleared.
So on the day of the decline and the next day, I bought a lot of coins.
In my previous article, I mentioned that everyone should pay attention to MEME, SOL and RWA. These are all good opportunities to enter the market during a decline. In the short term, no matter which one you buy, MEME has already produced good benefits. All you have to do is buy it and wait for a few days. Especially for the stagflationary Dogecoin, it is safe and efficient.
So what should we do with the sectors that are more popular in the short term?
There is only one word: wait.
MEME's opportunity will come by waiting, sui's opportunity will come by waiting, ETHW's opportunity will come by waiting, and almost all coins, as long as they hit the bottom, will have a chance to rebound.
To sum up, it means to be optimistic about a direction, wait for the opportunity of a pullback, and then find some coins that can be bought at the bottom.
The most recent rebound was MEME, and the next one may be, and we must also expect, RWA, at least for those of us who hold it.
People still need to have some vision and patience.
Investing to make money requires a bit of patience and cognition.
I read in the news recently that many retail investors entered the market with leverage after the holiday, but they were trapped after only experiencing a one-day bull market, and some of their leverage even exploded.
So I often say that some people just "don't know how to make money". They earn money by luck and lose it by their own abilities.
Investing is about buying opportunities. If you can’t catch up, don’t chase it. Just wait for a pullback. Remember the risks when it falls. It will never be as high as when it soars.
For example, in the recent cryptocurrency market, if you bought at a low point before, you can now take profits or hold on without being trapped. If you did not buy at a low point, you can only wait.
The market is looking at more corrections, which is based on the premise that there is a need for a correction after the rise. If you enter the market now, you will have to bear the risk of a correction.
Predict the market situation in the next twenty days:
If there are no unexpected events, and there is still a pullback, we will be bullish, and the target of Bitcoin is 70,000.
In the general election on November 5, there is a high probability that election concepts (maga, trump, people, fight) and MEME will have a strong period.
November 6-7 are the interest rate discussion days, and there is a high probability that there will be a market trend before that.
Note: Market forecasts involve risks, and the analysis in this article only represents one’s own opinion.
