US manufacturing inflation for September is also higher than forecast. As was yesterday's consumer inflation.

- Producer Price Index (PPI) (y/y) (September) - 1.8% with a forecast of 1.6% and the previous figure of 1.9% (before the release of the data it was 1.7%).

- Core Producer Price Index (PPI) (y/y) (September) - 2.8% with a forecast of 2.7% and the previous figure of 2.6% (before the release of the data it was 2.4%).

And now the threat of stagflation has become even more real. Because the chances that consumer inflation will decrease in October have become smaller.

This time the#BTCrate reacted with a slight increase, although yesterday it fell due to bad inflation data. But while we were writing the post, all the growth had already been absorbed.

Let's see how the market's expectations for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will change today. According to CMEGroup, 87.9% expect a cut of 0.25 percentage points, and 12.1% expect a pause.

Logically, after today's data, the share of those expecting a pause should increase. If we interpret the market players' moods correctly, they believe that inflation is still more important to the US Federal Reserve than the labor market. And it will be ready to hold off on rate cuts to the detriment of the labor market.

Overall, the macroeconomic conditions for risky asset markets are clearly unfavourable. On the one hand, the probability of a pause in rate cuts may increase. On the other hand, the risk of stagflation does not bode well.