Today's US macro data reduced the probability of a pause in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve. Let us recall that their next meeting will be held on November 7.

According to #CMEGroup, if 20% of players were expecting a pause in November this morning, now it is only 9.4%. While a decrease of 0.25 percentage points is expected by 90.6%.

This is an interesting point, which means that in the assessments of market participants, inflation is still the number one problem for the Federal Reserve. And the regulator is ready to neglect the strength of the labor market (as well as the risks of breaking the "soft landing" scenario) at this stage.

Let us recall that the FedWatch Tool from CMEGroup analyzes futures on Fed rates to predict the likelihood of changes in the target federal funds rate at future Fed meetings.

That is, the forecasts are based on market expectations and contract prices for futures. This is not an expert assessment or a survey, this is better.