Everyone is currently paying close attention to when the bull market in the cryptocurrency market will arrive, and why there has not been a significant increase so far.

First of all, we must point out the fact that the bull market has actually started quietly, starting from the 49,000-point bottom-fishing turning point that I predicted before. The world is implementing loose monetary policies, but why is there no surge like the previous bull market? The reason is that the pace of easing at that time was different from that of now.

In 2020, in response to the impact of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 150 basis points in just one month, and other countries around the world quickly followed suit and adopted similar easing measures. This directly led to an explosive growth in the price of Bitcoin in a short period of time. It took only half a year to rise to 65,000 points, close to the peak of the cycle, an increase of 18 times. However, in the second half of 2021, due to the failure of the loose policy to continue, the price of Bitcoin has been hovering around 69,000 points, which is almost the same as 65,000 points in April, forming a double top pattern.

This round of cycle is characterized by slow easing, and it is expected that the interest rate will be gradually reduced by 200 basis points in the next six months, rather than being reduced as quickly as in 2020. Therefore, this round of bull market is more like the situation in 2017, and it is expected to continue to rise, while the bull market in 2017 lasted for a full year and a half. Therefore, the reason why the currency circle failed to rise sharply from March to September this year was mainly because the Federal Reserve had not yet cut interest rates, resulting in a lack of additional incremental funds in the market, which triggered a sideways consolidation for half a year.

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