Overview of important futures data and events next week

1. On October 7, domestic futures exchanges were closed due to the National Day holiday and will open as usual on October 8 (Tuesday).

2. October 7th, to be determined, Malaysia's SPPOMA palm oil production forecast for October 1-5. Earlier data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Pressers Association (SPPOMA) showed that Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.5% from September 1 to 30, 2024. Pay attention to the palm oil production data this time. If the production continues to decrease, it may be good for palm oil.

3. At 4:00 am on October 8, USDA released the U.S. crop growth report as of October 6. Previous data showed that the U.S. soybean harvest rate was faster than the same period last year. If the harvest continues to accelerate, U.S. soybean futures may continue to be under pressure.

4. Several Fed officials delivered speeches. At 06:00 on October 8, 2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivered a speech; at 06:30 on October 8, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Moussalem delivered a speech on economic outlook and monetary policy; at 21:15 on October 9, 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan delivered a speech on the current economic situation; at 23:00 on October 10, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech on economic outlook and monetary policy and participated in the discussion.

5. At 00:00 on October 9, EIA released its monthly short-term energy outlook report. SEB's chief commodity analyst said that if escalating tensions in the Middle East lead to a significant reduction in Iran's crude oil production, oil prices may soar to more than $200 per barrel.

6. At 16:00 on October 9, China announced the annual rate of M2 money supply, social financing scale, and new RMB loans in September. Western Securities said that monetary policy easing is conducive to credit stabilization. It is estimated that new loans in September will be 2.2 trillion yuan, close to 2.3 trillion yuan in the same period last year. It is estimated that new social financing in September will be 3.9 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 4.1 trillion yuan in the same period last year; the stock of social financing will increase by 8.1% year-on-year, the same as in August. It is expected that M2 will increase by 6.3% year-on-year, the same as in August.

7. At 02:00 on October 10, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. Earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates "over time" and the committee is not in a hurry to cut interest rates quickly. Ultimately, we will be guided by the data we receive. If the economic slowdown is greater than we expect, then we can cut interest rates faster. If the speed is slower than we expect, we can slow down.

8. At 12:30 on October 10, MPOB released the Malaysian palm oil supply and demand report for September. According to a Reuters survey, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise for the second consecutive month to 1.95 million tons, an increase of 3.55% from the end of August. Production is expected to fall to 1.86 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%. Exports are expected to fall by 1.65% to 1.5 million tons, a second consecutive month of decline.

9. At 20:30 on October 10, the U.S. September unadjusted CPI annual rate and monthly rate were released. Previously, the U.S. August unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.5%, which was the fifth consecutive month of decline, the lowest level since February 2021, and lower than the market expectation of 2.6%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 3.2%, the same as expected and the previous value, and had fallen for four consecutive months.

10. At 00:00 on October 12, USDA released its October supply and demand report. Previously, commodity brokerage firm StoneX raised its forecast for US soybean yield in 2024 to 53.5 bushels per acre, raised its forecast for US soybean production to 4.613 billion bushels, and raised its forecast for US corn yield to 184.0 bushels per acre.

11. At 09:30 on October 13, China's September CPI annual and monthly rates were announced. Analysts at Everbright Securities said that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI is expected to continue to rise moderately driven by the pig cycle, and the year-on-year PPI may further decline in September. There is hope for marginal improvement in the fourth quarter, but it is expected to remain in the negative growth range this year.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data