Mini Program: Daily Cryptocurrency Dynamics Summary
1. Today's Fear and Greed Index rose to 59, and the level changed from neutral to greedy
Today, the Fear and Greed Index rose to 59, and the level changed from neutral to greedy. Note: The threshold of the Fear Index is 0-100, including indicators: volatility (25%) + market trading volume (25%) + social media heat (15%) + market research (15%) + Bitcoin's proportion in the entire market (10%) + Google hot word analysis (10%).
2. Reflexivity founder: Bitcoin must break through the $65,000 level to confirm the continuation of the bull market
Will Clemente, founder of crypto analysis agency Reflexivity Research, posted on social media that it is psychologically very difficult to switch from trying to cut profits on a rebound to letting winners continue to rise during a shock. In my opinion, Bitcoin confirms that changes in market structure above $65,000 are the threshold for risk appetite and shifting this bias.
3. BTC options with a notional value of approximately $5.8 billion and ETH options with a notional value of $1.896 billion will expire on Friday
Deribit data shows that BTC options with a nominal value of approximately US$5.8 billion and ETH options contracts with a nominal value of US$1.896 billion will expire and be delivered on Friday (September 27); the maximum pain point price of BTC is US$59,000, and the maximum pain point price of ETH is US$2,500.
4. BlackRock’s head of cryptocurrency business: Bitcoin is already a “safe haven asset”
Mitchnick, head of BlackRock Group's cryptocurrency business, believes that Bitcoin has become a "safe-haven asset."
5. Analyst: Bitcoin is expected to break through in Q4, and institutional demand and innovation will drive the rise of cryptocurrencies
As the fourth quarter of 2024 approaches, some analysts predict that Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market will continue to rise, driven primarily by institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors. Gabriel Selby, chief research analyst at CF Benchmarks, said in the report that digital assets are expected to continue to grow in the fourth quarter against the backdrop of macro changes and institutional adoption, as sovereign balance sheets face pressure and investors will seek long-term hedging tools like Bitcoin. Selby said that after the November 5 presidential election, the US regulatory landscape may change significantly, creating a good environment for cryptocurrency innovation. We see conditions that enhance investor confidence and promote capital formation. Ryan Lee, chief analyst of Bitget Research, is equally bullish on Bitcoin's performance in the last quarter. He said that Bitcoin is expected to perform better in October than in September, with a target price range of $58,000 to $72,000. Lee pointed out that there are multiple eye-catching signs in the derivatives market, including multiple negative funding rates in Bitcoin futures in September, and the Fear and Greed Index is still hovering in the extreme fear zone. Historically, these factors have often heralded the arrival of a major rebound.
6. Analysis: There was a large-scale transfer of BTC in multiple holding periods between September 18 and 24
Cryptoquant analyst XBT Manager report shows that network activity has increased significantly during the recent upward trend in Bitcoin prices, which may bring new selling pressure. Data shows that between September 18 and 24, there was a large-scale transfer of Bitcoins in multiple holding periods. Among them, 4,924 Bitcoins held for 2-3 years and 16,707 Bitcoins held for 1 week to 1 month were transferred on September 18; on September 23, 29,292 Bitcoins held for 6-12 months were transferred. Bitcoins are transferred. XBTManager pointed out that the significant movement in currency volume during various stages during this period reflects the continued transfer activity on the Bitcoin network. Analyzing whether these Bitcoins are being moved to exchanges will help assess the potential depth of selling pressure. As online transfer activity increases, Bitcoin’s upward momentum begins to slow.
7. CryptoQuant: Bitcoin’s “profitable supply” levels signal further upside potential
CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin prices rose nearly 8% after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Its "profitable supply" indicator has broken through the 365-day moving average, indicating that further gains may be in the future. The indicator shows that more and more Bitcoin holders are in profit, which may reduce selling pressure and improve market confidence. However, Bitfinex analysts urged caution, noting that Bitcoin's rise was initially driven by spot market purchases, but a slowdown in this activity could lead to consolidation or partial pullbacks in the short term.
8. 10x Research: The market trend has changed significantly after the interest rate cut, and traders are accumulating altcoins such as TAO, ENA, SEI, and APT
10x Research said in its market analysis that the market trend has changed significantly after the Fed's rate cut, and investors' preference for DeFi and high-beta assets has begun to rise. Several key themes emerged at the Token2049 conference, hinting at the impact of rate cuts on the DeFi revival, such as the tokenization of physical assets, which showed that the market demand for treasury-type on-chain tokens has decreased, because lower interest rates have made them no longer attractive. As Bitcoin breaks through $60,000 and targets $65,000, savvy traders have begun to accumulate undervalued altcoins, including TAO, ENA, SEI, APT, SUI, NEAR, and GRT, betting on a strong rebound in the fourth quarter.
9. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce: The SEC has taken a legally inaccurate view when it comes to cryptocurrencies
FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett revealed that SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce directly refuted SEC Chairman Gary Gensler at a hearing held by the House Financial Services Committee, saying that the SEC took a legally inaccurate view when it came to cryptocurrencies to cover up unclear regulatory issues: I think we as regulators failed in precision, so to say in a footnote, yes, we acknowledge that, in fact, the token itself is not a security,' is something we should have acknowledged long ago and then started to deal with those difficult issues.
10. BlackRock has purchased 354,173 BTC since January this year, worth about $22.5 billion
According to data disclosed by Cointelegraph on the X platform, BlackRock continues to accumulate Bitcoin and has purchased 354,173 BTC worth US$22.49 billion since January this year.
11. Binance CEO: Binance's historical transaction volume exceeded 100 trillion US dollars in early September
Richard Teng, CEO of Binance, posted on the X platform that Binance’s total historical transaction volume exceeded $100 trillion in early September.
12. Bitcoin’s declining market share and the structural bullishness of the altcoin market have prompted traders to predict the coming of the “altcoin season”
Altcoins have shown strong momentum during Bitcoin's recovery over the past month, leading analysts to believe that the market may be about to usher in altcoin season. Trader 360Trader observed that the total crypto market capitalization (TOTAL3) excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum retested the upper boundary of the descending channel. Although this key level has been suppressing prices since March, a decisive close above it would confirm "a fatal blow to the bears" ParabolicPump said that as altcoin prices rise, Bitcoin's market share is about to break down from its ascending wedge. It's only a matter of time. Every bull run in cryptocurrencies will have a stage where Bitcoin's market share will drop sharply.
13. QCP: Global easing policies provide support for asset prices in the short term, and ETH's implied volatility is 9% higher than BTC
QCP Capital published an analysis pointing out that driven by the stimulus measures of the People's Bank of China, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) rose 4.15% today, marking a critical moment for the global market. Global easing policies will continue, which will provide strong support for asset prices in the short term. In terms of cryptocurrencies, this general bullish momentum has caused ETH prices to rise more relative to BTC, with ETH/BTC rising from 0.038 last Friday to 0.0415 today. ETH implied volatility is 9% higher than BTC, indicating that market sentiment is upward and expected volatility is also higher.
14. Analysis: US Ethereum ETF recorded the largest outflow since July, indicating low institutional appeal
According to CoinDesk analysis, the outflow of funds from the U.S. Ethereum ETF hit the largest record since July, with more than $79 million outflow on Monday, indicating that institutional demand for Ethereum is weakening. Almost all of the outflows on Monday came from Grayscale's ETHE product, and Bitwise's ETHW inflow was slightly more than $1.3 million. No inflow or outflow activity occurred in other products. The disconnect between ETH price momentum and ETF outflows shows that investors are still uncertain about the long-term growth prospects of the asset. Peter Chung, head of research at PrestoLabs, said that compared with Bitcoin's widely accepted "digital gold" narrative, Ethereum's "world computer" narrative is not so easy to resonate with traditional financial (TradFi) investors. Augustine Fan, director of insights at SOFA.org, pointed out that although ETH rose due to the Fed's dovish stance, the large outflow of ETF funds indicated that market sentiment was fragile. Nick Ruck, an independent market analyst, pointed out that the recent outflow of funds may be related to the general pessimism about Ethereum's growth prospects. Earlier today, it was reported that the US Ethereum spot ETF had a total net outflow of US$79.2097 million yesterday, and the ETF net asset ratio reached 2.25%.
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
