Mini Program: Daily Cryptocurrency Dynamics Summary
1. BlackRock: Bitcoin's attractiveness as a reserve asset increases due to the US federal deficit and debt situation
A document written by some of the BlackRock asset management giant’s top executives, including BlackRock’s ETF chief investment officer Samara Cohen and digital asset head Robert Mitchnick, shows that BlackRock has taken note of concerns about the spiraling $35 trillion U.S. fiscal deficit and attributes it to the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin. The document outlines: “Growing concerns both inside and outside the United States about the U.S. federal deficit and debt position have increased the appeal of potential alternative reserve assets as a hedge against possible future events that could affect the U.S. dollar.”
2. Standard Chartered Bank: Bitcoin and the broader crypto market will continue to rise after the Fed cuts interest rates
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin and digital assets will continue to rise after the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, driven more by favorable macroeconomic conditions than the results of the U.S. presidential election. "For the first time, digital assets have topped the list in terms of performance following the FOMC meeting. This is the case despite Polymarket showing Kamala Harris’ approval rating at 52/47 today," Kendrick noted in an email on Thursday. He attributed the positive performance to macroeconomic drivers starting to overwhelm election-related uncertainty. Kendrick insisted that the U.S. presidential election is not as influential on Bitcoin prices as it used to be. "While the U.S. election is important, macro drivers are starting to take over," he said, adding that he is monitoring the difference between short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury yields as an indicator of market conditions that are favorable for digital assets. "I look at the U.S. 2s10s curve, and a steeper U.S. yield curve is favorable for digital assets."
3. Viewpoint: Bitcoin may break new highs and is expected to rise to more than $100,000 by the end of the year
CoinDesk analysts predict that Bitcoin may be about to usher in a new round of price breakthroughs, with prices expected to rise to $108,000 to $155,000 based on past market cycles. Since reaching a high of $73,000 in March, Bitcoin has experienced a lengthy correction, with many investors believing the market has peaked. However, recent Bitcoin price action has been similar to its performance during two bull markets in 2016 and 2020. Both of those bull markets ended the year with significant gains. This suggests that Bitcoin may be on track to see a similar move again before the end of the year. Despite the weakness since March, Bitcoin is still up 290% since the market low in November 2022, consistent with previous bull cycles. If Bitcoin follows past trends, its price could see a 600% to 900% increase before the end of the year, reaching a range of $108,000 to $155,000.
4. Bitbank analyst: Bitcoin is not out of trouble yet, the next short-term target may be around $65,000
Yuya Hasegawa, a cryptocurrency market analyst at Japanese bitcoin exchange Bitbank, sounded a warning about the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting that began on Thursday, saying Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet, saying: “The Bank of Japan is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged this time, but signs of further rate hikes could boost the yen and could trigger a reversal of the yen carry trade, which could lead to a sell-off in Japanese stocks and risk aversion could spread to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin still has some time before the Bank of Japan makes a decision and could extend its gains during Thursday’s U.S. trading session. The next possible short-term target is around $65,000.”
5. QCP Capital: Cryptocurrency market volatility is expected to soar as the US presidential election approaches
QCP Capital said in its latest market analysis that the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut last night and plans to cut rates twice more this year and four more times in 2025. With Powell being vague about the size and speed of subsequent rate cuts, everyone will be watching the upcoming employment data for signs. The US 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread, an indicator of recession, has been inverted since July 2022, but has recently increased to +8 basis points, reflecting market optimism and a shift toward risk-on assets. The S&P 500 attempted to set a new high but closed lower after the FOMC meeting. In terms of options, implied volatility plummeted after the FOMC meeting, with BTC falling 19vols and ETH falling 18vols. After the FOMC, BTC rebounded from $59,000 to $62,000, while ETH was around $2,400. It believes that volatility is expected to surge as Election Day approaches, just after the next FOMC meeting.
6. 4E Asia Pacific Ambassador: As the world enters a cycle of interest rate cuts, the relationship between traditional finance and Bitcoin is undergoing profound changes
TOKEN 2049 conference ended successfully. 4E, as a platinum sponsor, performed brilliantly at the exhibition. Through booth demonstrations and on-site interactions, 4E fully demonstrated its latest blockchain technology and financial products, attracting a large number of participants to stop by. Many participants downloaded and registered the 4E APP on site to experience it, showing a strong interest in its products. In addition, 4E also organized small interactive activities and gave away exquisite peripheral gifts to enhance the atmosphere and experience on site. During the two-day conference, 4E was also invited to participate in many interviews. The 4E Asia-Pacific ambassador said that as the world enters a cycle of interest rate cuts, the relationship between traditional finance and Bitcoin is undergoing profound changes. As "digital gold", Bitcoin has attracted more and more attention from investors and traditional financial institutions. During TOKEN2049, many industry leaders also emphasized the important position of Bitcoin in the global financial system, indicating that it may play a more core role in the future. It is reported that the 4E platform integrates multiple financial product transactions such as cryptocurrency, foreign exchange, commodities, stocks and indices, supports more than 600 asset spot and derivative transactions, has more than 1.2 million users, and its business covers more than 20 countries and regions around the world, showing a strong development momentum. The appearance at TOKEN2049 not only enhances 4E's brand awareness and close ties with global users, but also undoubtedly further consolidates its cutting-edge position in the one-stop trading field.
7. Hong Kong virtual bank WeLab forms a consortium to apply for a Thai digital banking license
Hong Kong virtual bank WeLab announced that it has formed a consortium with Thai fintech company Lighthub Asset and has submitted an application for a digital bank license to the Bank of Thailand. The application result is expected to be announced in the first half of 2025. It is reported that Lightnet Group has obtained licenses from the Bank of Thailand and four other Asian and European central banks. It uses artificial intelligence and blockchain technology to provide global payment solutions in 150 countries, including cross-border remittances, e-wallets and multi-currency digital bank accounts. The company has also received strategic investments from UOB Venture Management, Seven Bank, Hanwha Investment Securities, Uni-President and Raffles Family Office. WeLab founder and group CEO Peter Loong said that he looks forward to the opportunity to establish the third digital bank in Asia and make it the leading digital bank in Thailand.
8. German government shuts down 47 cryptocurrency exchanges suspected of being involved in illegal activities
German authorities have shut down 47 cryptocurrency exchanges suspected of being involved in criminal activities such as money laundering, saying that the exchanges deliberately failed to fulfill their obligations to conduct identity and background checks on their customers. Some of the exchanges included Xchange Cash, 60cek, Baksman, and a number of other smaller platforms. One of the exchanges has been active since 2012, while others were founded only the year before.
9. Block subsidies have become the main source of income for Bitcoin miners, accounting for more than 98%
The impact of halving has led to a reduction in fee income, and block subsidies have become the main source of income for Bitcoin miners. On September 13, of the $25.35 million in miners’ daily revenue, only $398,860 came from transaction fees, accounting for only 1.6% of total revenue. This is a significant change from previous periods, when transaction fees peaked at over 40% of miners’ revenue. Analysts say that with block subsidies halving every four years, transaction fees will only grow in importance in terms of cybersecurity. Some advocate for larger block sizes to accommodate more transactions, while others advocate for a layer 2 solution, which could push more settled transactions back to the main chain.
10. Robert Kennedy Jr.: Bitcoin mining is a powerful new tool to support renewable energy grids
Robert Kennedy Jr. recently said in a letter to The Economist that Bitcoin mining is a powerful new tool to support renewable energy-intensive power grids. He pointed out that although the power grid is facing pressure from manufacturing, electric vehicles and data centers, the electricity consumption pattern of Bitcoin mining is different from traditional electricity consumption and can have a positive impact on the power grid. Kennedy emphasized that unlike facilities such as data centers, Bitcoin mines only operate when electricity is cheap and abundant. When power scarcity causes prices to rise, mines will reduce power consumption within seconds. In addition, Kennedy pointed out that Bitcoin miners actively participate in demand response projects, allowing grid operators to control their electricity consumption to stabilize the grid. The participation of Bitcoin miners in these projects helps to bid in the open market and reduce consumers' electricity costs.
11. CryptoQuant: Declining supply of BTC short-term holders may hinder price breakthrough
CryptoQuant data shows that the 30-day change in Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) supply has fallen to its lowest level since 2012. Julio Moreno, director of research at CryptoQuant, said this could limit Bitcoin’s ability to break out of its current price range. Data shows that Bitcoin supply is shifting towards long-term holders (LTH), which are addresses that have been held for more than 155 days. Although the accumulation of Bitcoin by long-term holders is a prerequisite for price appreciation, Moreno emphasized that Bitcoin still needs new demand from short-term holders to maintain price increases. Moreno added, “We still haven’t seen significant new demand from short-term holders.”
12. Russian media: Man who sent cryptocurrency to Ukrainian military suspected of treason was arrested by the Russian Federal Security Service
According to the Russian newspaper Izvestia, an unidentified Russian man was arrested on suspicion of treason on the streets of the Russian Far Eastern city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur for allegedly sending cryptocurrency to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The cryptocurrencies were sent to the Ukrainian military for the purpose of "buying weapons, ammunition and uniforms." Russia's top intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service (FSB), shared a video of the arrest on Wednesday. The footage depicts several agents rushing out of a car and pinning the man to the ground with his hands behind his back before he is handcuffed, detained and interviewed. It is unclear what punishment the man might receive if he is found guilty. However, two weeks ago, physicist Alexander Shiplyuk was sentenced to 15 years in prison for "treason" after sharing confidential information with German intelligence at an overseas conference in 2017 while working on Russia's hypersonic missile program.
13. Worldcoin is testing facial recognition for its World App
Worldcoin has announced that it will be testing facial recognition technology for its World App users. A statement said the new feature "is a private 1:1 facial match that ensures that only those who have verified their World ID on the orb can" access the World App. The measure was introduced to improve the security of users who use the app for tools such as "online shopping, financial transactions, and secure login to applications." According to the organization, nearly 15 million people around the world currently use the World App digital wallet, and about 6.7 million users have officially verified their "identity" using Worldcoin's iris scanning orb. Worldcoin allocates WLD tokens to those who prove their identity and create a World ID through an eye scan.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data
