Let's take a look at the situation of US stocks before the market:
Although there is not much data before the market, the performance of the seven technology giants may not be too optimistic tonight.
Especially Apple's stock price. Due to the release of new products, market demand has obviously weakened, resulting in the current decline among the seven giants.
As we expected last week, the bullish sentiment lasted until last Friday, and once this week, facing the uncertainty of the interest rate meeting, the risk market as a whole remained nervous and conservative.
At present, in the Bloomberg article, all parties said that for the first interest rate cut at present, it is like the probability of flipping a coin. Before there is a complete expectation, whether it is a 25% or 50% interest rate cut, it is all subjective analysis and speculation.
Of course, tomorrow's retail data on Tuesday will bring more expected impacts to the market.
The focus of US stocks tonight is still to see the performance of the second half. Whether the caution in the first half will be changed in the second half is more important.
The US dollar index finally fell back to around 100 near the interest rate cut stage, and is currently 100.7. After Powell first confirmed the adjustment of the monetary interest rate, the US dollar index rebounded and remained resilient.
International gold is currently rising to around $2,580, and it still maintains a strong upward trend. Once the interest rate meeting is implemented and the interest rate cut is determined, the price is likely to break through the $2,600 mark in the short term.
The price of 10-year US Treasury bonds continues to rise, and the yield is pushed down to 3.644%. The yield of two-year US Treasury bonds, which are more sensitive to interest rate decisions, has fallen to the lowest level in September 2022, and has now returned to the stage of interest rate inversion with long bonds.
However, the yields of US 1-year Treasury bonds and monthly short bonds are still much higher than those of 10-year Treasury bonds.
After this week's interest rate meeting, we should focus on the increase in gold and US long bonds. If large-scale buying is found, it may indicate that the market anticipates a potential crisis and avoids risks. On the contrary, everything is relatively stable.
Except for gold and US bonds, other markets will basically be very cautious before the interest rate meeting, so continue to wait.
